Topaz Energy Corp's recent earnings report showed a significant miss against expectations, raising questions about its operational efficiency and future outlook.
On July 27, 2026, Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ.TO) reported its second-quarter earnings for the fiscal period ending June 30, 2026. The company achieved record production levels and increased its royalty production guidance, but it fell short of earnings expectations. Topaz reported an adjusted net income of C$45.79 million, or C$0.29 per share, compared to the consensus estimate of C$0.35 per share—an earnings surprise of -17.14%.
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Topaz Energy Corp
TPZ.TO
TPZ.TO
Topaz Energy Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$4.90B
P/E
34.0x
Div. yield
15.63%
Div. / share
$5.00
52W high
$33.55
52W low
$23.44
1W change
-3.15%
Beta
0.53
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering TPZ
Wall Street analysts forecast TPZ stock price to rise 12.8% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$35.71
+12.8% Upside
Current Price
C$31.65
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on TPZ's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
21.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
22.9%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-1.9%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$31.44
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$31.58 | C$29.31 – C$34.03 |
| 60 trading days | C$31.51 | C$28.35 – C$35.02 |
| 90 trading days | C$31.44 | C$27.63 – C$35.78 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-27 | 0.2900 | 0.3500 | -17.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.2500 | 0.3900 | -35.9% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-24 | 0.2100 | 0.1100 | +90.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-03 | 0.1000 | 0.0700 | +42.9% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-28 | 0.0800 | 0.1100 | -27.3% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-05 | 0.0800 | 0.0700 | +14.3% |
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Investor takeaway: Despite the earnings miss, Topaz Energy's strong production growth and strategic acquisitions show its potential for future growth. However, investors should be cautious about its debt levels and reliance on operator capital allocation.
Bull case
Topaz's record liquids production and increased royalty production guidance highlight its operational strengths. The successful acquisition of additional acreage could offer significant upside, and the company's strong cash flow performance suggests it can weather challenging market conditions.
Bear case
The earnings miss raises concerns about operational efficiency and the company's ability to manage costs effectively. Additionally, high levels of net debt and dependence on operator capital allocation for drilling activities present risks that could impact future performance.
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Wealth Awesome
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