Ero Copper reports its September-quarter results after the market closes on November 2. The company’s recent record is mixed: it beat estimates in two of its last four comparable quarters.
Ero Copper Corp. (TSX: ERO) is reporting results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. One earnings calendar lists EPS consensus at C$1.42, while trends data shows C$1.63, based on five analysts. The difference makes it worth checking which estimate feed you’re using. Trends data also puts revenue consensus at US$471.86 million, based on two analysts. The company’s conference call is scheduled for November 3, according to the supplied report notice. For Canadian investors, the key question is whether Ero can build on recent operating momentum and turn it into quarterly earnings.
Recent earnings trend
Ero Copper Corp
ERO.TO
ERO.TO
Ero Copper Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$4.53B
P/E
10.7x
52W high
$56.62
52W low
$27.22
1W change
+2.77%
Beta
1.63
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ERO · as of Oct 22, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast ERO stock price to rise 30.7% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$56.83
+30.7% Upside
Previously C$56.90 on Oct 21, 2026
Current Price
C$43.47
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ERO's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
54.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
63.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+26.4%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$47.77
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$44.86 | C$37.11 – C$54.22 |
| 60 trading days | C$46.29 | C$35.41 – C$60.52 |
| 90 trading days | C$47.77 | C$34.40 – C$66.34 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 5 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-02 | — | 1.4200 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-05 | 1.1600 | 1.0000 | +16.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-04 | 0.9400 | 0.7200 | +30.6% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-05 | 1.4300 | 1.4400 | -0.7% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | 0.3800 | 0.4500 | -15.6% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-31 | 0.6400 | 0.4600 | +39.1% |
Investor takeaway: Available estimates point to a much stronger year-over-year quarter, but the feeds differ on EPS and analyst coverage is limited. Ero has beaten estimates in only two of its last four comparable quarters, so another beat isn’t a given. Alongside EPS, watch copper production, realized prices, costs and cash flow. The supplied Q2 company-news summary reported production of 17,315 tonnes of copper, C$137.9 million in operating cash flow and C$144.0 million in adjusted EBITDA. Production guidance was maintained. These figures provide context, but they don’t guarantee September-quarter results.
C$1.63 EPS is the trends consensus — but another calendar feed lists C$1.42
Trends data shows an EPS consensus of C$1.63 from five analysts, compared with C$0.38 a year earlier. A separate earnings calendar lists C$1.42. Treat these as different estimates, not one settled target. The trends feed’s estimate range is C$1.08 to C$1.91.
Bull case
The trends consensus of C$1.63 per share is well above year-ago EPS of C$0.38, and estimated revenue growth is 89.2%. The EPS estimate has risen slightly from C$1.62 over the past 30 days, with two upward revisions and one downward revision. Ero beat estimates in its two most recent reported quarters: C$1.16 versus C$1.00 for June 2026, and C$0.94 versus C$0.72 for March. If operations and cash generation held up, Ero could post another strong year-over-year comparison.
Bear case
Ero’s recent record is mixed. It missed estimates in the December and September 2025 quarters, and beat in only two of its last four comparable quarters. The EPS estimate range is wide, from C$1.08 to C$1.91, and just two analysts contribute to the revenue estimate. Copper prices, production, operating costs and other factors can all affect results. ERO.TO last closed at C$43.47, below its 50-day moving average of C$49.87, and was down 17.53% over the past month. That market performance doesn’t predict the earnings result, but it highlights the risk of shifting expectations.
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