First Quantum Minerals reports after the market closes on October 28. Analysts expect the company to return to positive quarterly earnings per share (EPS), but it has missed estimates in each of its last four reported quarters.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (TSX: FM) is scheduled to report results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, after the market closes on October 28. Earnings-trends data puts consensus EPS at C$0.24, based on estimates from six analysts ranging from C$0.14 to C$0.36. Revenue consensus is US$1.78 billion, based on four analysts. Those estimates point to a sharp year-over-year improvement from a C$0.02-per-share loss and revenue growth of 31.9%.
Recent earnings trend
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First Quantum Minerals Ltd
FM.TO
FM.TO
First Quantum Minerals Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$27.90B
52W high
$49.27
52W low
$27.06
1W change
-9.11%
Beta
2.06
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FM · as of Oct 26, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast FM stock price to rise 50.7% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$50.38
+50.7% Upside
Previously C$50.52 on Oct 23, 2026
Current Price
C$33.44
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FM's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
61.1%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
55.9%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-48.2%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$28.15
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$31.57 | C$25.57 – C$38.98 |
| 60 trading days | C$29.81 | C$22.13 – C$40.16 |
| 90 trading days | C$28.15 | C$19.54 – C$40.55 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 6 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | — | 0.1400 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-27 | -0.1300 | -0.0400 | -225.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-28 | -0.1800 | 0.0500 | -460.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-10 | 0.0100 | 0.0700 | -85.7% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | -0.0200 | 0.0600 | -133.3% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-23 | 0.0200 | -0.0400 | +150.0% |
Estimates vary by source. A separate company-news report cites EPS of US$0.19 and revenue of US$1.8 billion. First Quantum has missed EPS estimates in each of its last four reported quarters. In the June quarter, it reported a C$0.13-per-share loss against an expected loss of C$0.04. You can follow FM.TO’s earnings and stock details as the report approaches.
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Investor takeaway: The report will show whether First Quantum can turn stronger expected revenue into positive earnings after four straight EPS misses. Consensus is positive, but the company’s recent results show that estimates have been hard to meet. The shares have also fallen 25.97% over the past month, closing at C$33.44 on October 23. That makes the earnings call’s discussion of operations and business conditions as important as the headline EPS figure.
C$0.24 EPS consensus — after four straight quarterly misses
Analysts expect EPS of C$0.24 for the quarter ended September 30, based on estimates from six analysts. Their forecasts range from C$0.14 to C$0.36. That would be a marked improvement from the C$0.02-per-share loss a year earlier, though First Quantum has missed estimates in each of its last four reported quarters. Revenue consensus is US$1.78 billion, based on four analysts. The EPS estimate has fallen by C$0.01 over the past 30 days. For now, the figures point to an expected recovery, not a confirmed turnaround.
Bull case
The bullish case rests on the expected year-over-year recovery. Analysts forecast EPS of C$0.24, compared with a C$0.02-per-share loss a year earlier, and revenue of US$1.78 billion, up an estimated 31.9%. A separate news report also expects earnings growth and revenue near US$1.8 billion.
UBS recently ranked First Quantum third among its top copper stocks. It also flagged the company’s Cobre Panama interest and liquidity management as key risks. If results support the expected improvement, investors will look for signs that the earnings recovery can continue.
Bear case
First Quantum’s recent earnings record is a clear warning: it missed consensus in each of its last four reported quarters. Actual EPS was -C$0.13, -C$0.18, C$0.01 and -C$0.02. The company also has negative trailing-twelve-month EPS and a -1.44% profit margin in the supplied fundamentals data.
The upcoming quarter’s consensus EPS estimate has slipped from C$0.25 to C$0.24 over the past 30 days. Two analysts lowered their estimates, while one raised theirs. UBS has also pointed to uncertainty around Cobre Panama and the need to manage liquidity while the mine remains non-operational. Commodity prices, currency movements and operating risks can also affect mining results.
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