GFL Environmental reports after the market closes on October 28. Analysts expect earnings and revenue to rise from a year ago, but the company’s recent results have been mixed: it beat estimates in just one of its last four comparable quarters.
GFL Environmental Holdings Inc. (TSX: GFL) is set to report results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The available earnings calendar shows consensus EPS of C$0.34 from 15 analysts, with estimates ranging from C$0.23 to C$0.52. Revenue consensus is C$1.94 billion. These estimates point to year-over-year growth of 45.9% in EPS and 14.3% in revenue. They have not changed in the past 30 days.
Recent earnings trend
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Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc
GFL.TO
GFL.TO
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$23.01B
Div. yield
0.14%
Div. / share
$0.08
52W high
$65.60
52W low
$46.08
1W change
+2.79%
Beta
0.51
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering GFL · as of Oct 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast GFL stock price to rise 14.0% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$72.67
+14.0% Upside
Previously C$73.08 on Oct 7, 2026
Current Price
C$63.75
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on GFL's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
29.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
30.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$76.21
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$67.66 | C$61.11 – C$74.91 |
| 60 trading days | C$71.81 | C$62.19 – C$82.92 |
| 90 trading days | C$76.21 | C$63.90 – C$90.90 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 15 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | — | 0.2800 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.1900 | 0.2700 | -29.6% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | 0.0800 | 0.1200 | -33.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-11 | 0.3600 | 0.1900 | +89.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-05 | 0.2300 | 0.2600 | -11.5% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | 0.2600 | 0.2200 | +18.2% |
A separate calendar lists EPS of C$0.28. The supplied data includes both figures, so investors should check which estimate their provider uses rather than treating them as interchangeable. GFL beat estimates in one of its last four comparable quarters and missed in the other three. The upcoming report will show whether the expected growth is reflected in its results. For more company information, visit the GFL stock page.
Investor takeaway: Analysts expect GFL’s earnings and revenue to grow, but that doesn’t make a beat certain. The company has missed estimates in its two most recent quarters, and its consensus EPS estimate has been unchanged for a month. Canadian investors may want to compare reported EPS with the relevant consensus, look at revenue growth, and consider management’s explanation of operating performance. A single beat or miss won’t tell the whole story.
C$0.34 EPS consensus for the September quarter
The consensus from 15 analysts is C$0.34, up 45.9% from EPS of C$0.23 a year earlier. Estimates range from C$0.23 to C$0.52. The consensus has been steady for 30 days, and GFL has beaten estimates in only one of its last four comparable quarters.
Bull case
Analysts expect EPS of C$0.34, up from C$0.23 a year ago, and revenue of C$1.94 billion, a 14.3% increase. If GFL delivers that growth, it would be a stronger result after two consecutive quarterly EPS misses. Estimates range widely, from C$0.23 to C$0.52, so the actual result could differ substantially from the consensus. The shares closed at C$63.75, above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. That describes recent trading, not what the earnings report will show.
Bear case
GFL’s recent results have often fallen short of estimates. In June 2026, EPS was C$0.19 against an estimate of C$0.27. In March, EPS was C$0.08 against C$0.12. GFL beat estimates in December 2025, then missed in September 2025. Its trailing-twelve-month EPS is negative C$0.62, and its profit margin is -2.87%. Those figures show why positive quarterly EPS expectations alone don’t establish sustained profitability. A result below the C$0.34 consensus, or management commentary that casts doubt on expected growth, could weaken the optimistic outlook.
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Analysis
GFL is due to report after the market closes on October 28 for the period ended September 30. Earnings-trends data shows consensus EPS of C$0.34 from 15 analysts, with estimates ranging from C$0.23 to C$0.52. Revenue consensus is C$1.94 billion. Compared with EPS of C$0.23 a year ago, the consensus points to 45.9% growth. The revenue estimate implies growth of 14.3%.
The EPS consensus hasn’t changed in the past 30 days. The supplied calendar also lists EPS of C$0.28, so the estimates don’t match. Check which figure your data provider uses when comparing it with GFL’s reported result. The main question is whether the company delivers the expected year-over-year growth after its recent misses.
Analysis
GFL beat consensus in one of its last four comparable quarters. In June 2026, EPS was C$0.19 versus an estimate of C$0.27, a 29.63% shortfall. In March, EPS of C$0.08 missed the C$0.12 estimate by 33.33%. The company beat in December 2025, reporting C$0.36 against C$0.19, then missed in September 2025 with C$0.23 against C$0.26.
That record is a reason to keep expectations measured, not a prediction of the next result. GFL has 26 comparable quarters with actual and estimated results, offering a broader view than the last four quarters alone. The automatically inserted earnings trend table and chart show the quarter-by-quarter details. For company and quote information, see the GFL stock page.
Analysis
The EPS and revenue figures will show whether GFL delivered the expected growth. Management’s comments can provide more context. The company’s fundamentals snapshot shows trailing-twelve-month EPS of negative C$0.62 and a profit margin of -2.87%. A quarterly beat alone wouldn’t establish a lasting return to profitability.
GFL shares last closed at C$63.75, above their 50-day average of C$59.32 and 200-day average of C$56.48. These figures describe recent trading, not the earnings outcome. The company’s dividend yield is 0.14%. Investors can review the analyst ratings section for target information and the price-prediction section for a separate statistical model. Neither replaces an assessment of the reported results and business outlook.
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