Alamos Gold’s adjusted EPS came in just below estimates, but record production at Island Gold and a planned fourth-quarter increase kept its growth plans in focus.
Alamos Gold Inc. (TSX: AGI), also known as AGI.TO, reported third-quarter 2026 results after the market close on October 28. Calendar data showed EPS of C$0.44, compared with an estimate of C$0.45, a 2.2% miss. In its US-dollar report, the company posted adjusted earnings of US$0.44 per share and revenue of US$510.4 million. The slight earnings shortfall came alongside strong results at Island Gold and higher costs for the quarter.
Recent earnings trend
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Alamos Gold Inc
AGI.TO
AGI.TO
Alamos Gold Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$18.54B
P/E
11.5x
Div. yield
0.30%
Div. / share
$0.13
52W high
$75.55
52W low
$37.99
1W change
-0.58%
Beta
1.40
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering AGI · as of Oct 29, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast AGI stock price to rise 46.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$65.07
+46.9% Upside
Previously C$65.36 on Oct 28, 2026
Current Price
C$44.29
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on AGI's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
41.7%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
46.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$52.95
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$47.01 | C$40.71 – C$54.28 |
| 60 trading days | C$49.89 | C$40.70 – C$61.15 |
| 90 trading days | C$52.95 | C$41.27 – C$67.94 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 6 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | 0.4400 | 0.4500 | -2.2% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.5900 | 0.5300 | +11.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | 0.5500 | 0.5500 | +0.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 0.5400 | 0.5000 | +8.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | 0.3700 | 0.3600 | +2.8% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | 0.3400 | 0.3300 | +3.0% |
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Investor takeaway: Alamos produced 119,000 ounces. Record output at the Island Gold District was partly offset by lower planned production at Young-Davidson. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) rose to US$1,956 per ounce. Management expects costs to fall and production to rise significantly in the fourth quarter. Investors will be watching to see whether that increase arrives as planned and expansion projects stay on schedule.
US$510.4 million
Third-quarter revenue rose 10% from a year earlier. Gold sales totaled 118,361 ounces at an average realized price of US$4,258 per ounce. Alamos reported net earnings of US$165.6 million, or US$0.40 per share. Adjusted net earnings were US$184.0 million, or US$0.44 per share. The calendar estimate is in Canadian dollars, so currency and earnings definitions matter when comparing the figures.
Bull case
Island Gold produced a record 68,700 ounces for the quarter, as underground mining and Magino milling rates reached new highs. Alamos generated US$75.6 million in free cash flow and says it remains on track to meet its revised full-year guidance. Over the longer term, the company expects Island Gold expansions and development at Lynn Lake to help it reach about one million ounces of annual production by 2030.
Bear case
Lower mining rates and grades at Young-Davidson weighed on production, while AISC rose from the second quarter. Commissioning of the Island Gold shaft expansion has been pushed back by about one quarter, to mid-2027, as the company needs more time to complete the ore and waste handling system. Gold prices, operating performance and expansion costs remain key risks to the growth plan.
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