Canadian Pacific Kansas City grew revenue and adjusted earnings year over year in the third quarter, but rising costs weighed on efficiency and adjusted EPS fell short of the supplied consensus estimate.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (TSX: CP, also known as CP.TO) reported core adjusted diluted EPS of C$1.28 for the third quarter of 2026, 2.3% below the C$1.31 estimate in the earnings calendar. The company reported revenue of C$4.2 billion, up 15% from a year earlier, and core adjusted EPS growth of 16%. The earnings calendar and company release use different figures for EPS and revenue, so the comparisons below identify the source. For more company details, see the CP stock page.
Recent earnings trend
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Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd
CP.TO
CP.TO
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$110.50B
P/E
29.2x
Div. yield
0.74%
Div. / share
$0.95
52W high
$133.09
52W low
$95.67
1W change
+1.66%
Beta
1.22
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering CP · as of Oct 29, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast CP stock price to rise 11.6% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$140.30
+11.6% Upside
Previously C$139.79 on Oct 16, 2026
Current Price
C$125.70
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on CP's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
17.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
19.2%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+4.9%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$127.91
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$126.43 | C$118.99 – C$134.34 |
| 60 trading days | C$127.17 | C$116.71 – C$138.56 |
| 90 trading days | C$127.91 | C$115.15 – C$142.08 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 20 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | 1.2800 | 1.3100 | -2.3% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 1.2700 | 1.2400 | +2.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | 1.0400 | 1.0700 | -2.8% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-01-28 | 1.3300 | 1.3500 | -1.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | 1.1000 | 1.1100 | -0.9% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | 1.1200 | 1.1300 | -0.9% |
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Investor takeaway: CPKC delivered solid year-over-year growth, but missed the adjusted-EPS estimate and reported a higher core adjusted operating ratio. Investors will be watching whether volume growth and an expanded rail agreement with Elk Valley Resources can help offset higher fuel and other operating costs.
C$1.28 core adjusted EPS
Core adjusted EPS grew 16% year over year, but came in 2.3% below the C$1.31 earnings-calendar estimate. CPKC also reported a core adjusted operating ratio of 61.9%, up 120 basis points from a year earlier.
Bull case
Revenue rose 15% and revenue ton-miles increased 6% year over year. Core adjusted diluted EPS grew 16%. Management said CPKC remains on track to meet its 2026 commitments. A new five-year agreement with Elk Valley Resources will increase CPKC’s share of steelmaking coal shipments to Vancouver starting in January 2027.
Bear case
The core adjusted operating ratio rose 120 basis points year over year to 61.9%, with higher fuel prices adding pressure. The earnings-calendar EPS figure of C$1.28 missed the C$1.31 estimate. CP has beaten the calendar’s EPS estimate in only one of the last four comparable quarters. A higher operating ratio means the company spends more to earn each dollar of revenue.
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