West Fraser’s third-quarter loss was larger than analysts expected. Weak demand for wood products also led the company to idle two mills indefinitely.
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (TSX: WFG) reported third-quarter 2026 sales of US$1.363 billion and a net loss of US$80 million, or US$1.03 per diluted share. The earnings calendar lists EPS at -US$1.02, compared with an estimate of -US$0.76, a 34.2% miss. The company also announced indefinite shutdowns at its Huguley OSB mill in Alabama and Leola lumber mill in Arkansas, citing soft demand and little near-term visibility.
Recent earnings trend
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West Fraser Timber Co Ltd
WFG.TO
WFG.TO
West Fraser Timber Co Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$7.67B
Div. yield
1.30%
Div. / share
$1.28
52W high
$104.53
52W low
$79.26
1W change
+1.79%
Beta
1.14
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering WFG · as of Oct 29, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast WFG stock price to rise 13.3% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$108.58
+13.3% Upside
Previously C$106.29 on Oct 28, 2026
Current Price
C$95.87
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on WFG's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
28.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
34.8%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+24.8%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$104.75
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$98.74 | C$89.47 – C$108.97 |
| 60 trading days | C$101.70 | C$88.46 – C$116.92 |
| 90 trading days | C$104.75 | C$88.30 – C$124.25 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | -1.0200 | -0.7600 | -34.2% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | -0.8200 | -0.6900 | -18.8% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-22 | -2.4000 | -1.3600 | -76.5% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-11 | -2.1500 | -2.4100 | +10.8% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-22 | -2.5900 | -1.5200 | -70.4% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-23 | -0.3800 | 0.1700 | -323.5% |
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Investor takeaway: The results leave investors watching how long housing-related demand stays weak and whether cost controls can offset lower shipments and input costs. West Fraser ended the quarter with US$1.2 billion in available liquidity and refinanced its term loan. But it expects the mill shutdowns to result in a US$200 million to US$220 million impairment charge in Q4. Canadian investors will need to weigh that near-term hit against the company’s financial flexibility and the uncertain timing of a recovery.
US$38 million
West Fraser’s Q3 adjusted EBITDA was US$38 million, or 3% of sales, down from US$59 million in Q2. The earnings calendar lists EPS at -US$1.02 against an estimate of -US$0.76. The company’s release reported a net loss of US$1.03 per diluted share.
Bull case
West Fraser is cutting capacity to better match production with demand. It also has substantial liquidity and an undrawn US$1 billion credit facility. Its final combined duty rate of 20.02% maintains the lowest duty-deposit rate the company says it has. If housing affordability improves and demand for wood products recovers, a smaller operating footprint could help West Fraser respond.
Bear case
Demand remains weak for products used in new home construction and in repair and renovation. Management sees little near-term sign of improvement. Q3 adjusted EBITDA fell to US$38 million from US$59 million in Q2, and West Fraser expects shipments of SPF, SYP and North American OSB to land near the lower end of its guidance ranges. The expected impairment charge and ongoing losses show the risk of a prolonged downturn.
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