Capstone Copper’s adjusted profit rose sharply in the third quarter as copper prices strengthened. But operational setbacks pushed its 2026 production outlook to the low end of guidance.
Capstone Mining Corp. (TSX: CS) reported results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Earnings per share came in at C$0.17, matching the C$0.17 estimate—not beating it. The company reported adjusted net income of US$93.8 million, or US$0.12 per share, while revenue rose 19% year over year to US$712.0 million. Higher metal prices supported results, but lower copper production and operating challenges weighed on the full-year outlook.
Recent earnings trend
Capstone Mining Corp
CS.TO
CS.TO
Capstone Mining Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$8.43B
P/E
19.0x
52W high
$18.04
52W low
$9.30
1W change
-1.70%
Beta
2.22
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering CS · as of Nov 2, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast CS stock price to rise 63.0% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$17.93
+63.0% Upside
Previously C$18.01 on Oct 21, 2026
Current Price
C$11.00
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on CS's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
48.4%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
53.5%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$9.20
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$10.36 | C$8.77 – C$12.25 |
| 60 trading days | C$9.77 | C$7.71 – C$12.37 |
| 90 trading days | C$9.20 | C$6.89 – C$12.29 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 5 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-01 | — | 0.2700 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | 0.1700 | 0.1700 | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-30 | 0.1800 | 0.2000 | -10.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | 0.1600 | 0.1300 | +23.1% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-02 | 0.1371 | 0.1600 | -14.3% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-30 | 0.0800 | 0.0400 | +100.0% |
Investor takeaway: Higher copper prices lifted revenue, adjusted earnings and cash generation, while mine disruptions and rising costs limited production. Capstone expects 2026 copper production to land at the low end of its 200,000–230,000-tonne guidance range, with C1 cash costs at the high end of US$2.45–US$2.75 per pound. Follow results and key metrics on the CS.TO stock page.
US$712 million in Q3 revenue
Revenue rose 19% year over year as Capstone’s realized copper price climbed to US$6.61 per pound from US$4.49. The higher price helped push adjusted EBITDA to a record US$358.3 million. Production setbacks, however, tightened the company’s full-year outlook.
Bull case
Revenue increased to US$712.0 million from US$598.4 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA reached a record US$358.3 million, marking an eighth straight quarter of record results. Capstone’s realized copper price rose to US$6.61 per pound from US$4.49.
Operating cash flow before working-capital changes was US$329.1 million. Net debt fell to US$564.0 million from US$780.1 million at the end of 2025. The Mantoverde Optimized Project tie-in is complete, and the planned Cozamin sale could bring in up to US$385 million if it closes as expected.
Bear case
Copper production fell 18% to 45,218 tonnes, according to the company’s news release. Operational pressures included downtime at Pinto Valley, lower grades at Mantos Blancos and reduced cathode production at Mantoverde. The Pinto Valley crusher rebuild also took longer than planned.
Capstone expects full-year production at the bottom of its guidance range and costs at the top. It also raised capital spending guidance by US$40 million to US$830 million. Earnings matched estimates but did not exceed them, following a mixed run of estimate comparisons.
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