Cogeco reported fiscal Q4 EPS of C$2.04, compared with an estimate of -C$2.62. That looks like a large percentage surprise, but the estimate was negative. Meanwhile, revenue and adjusted EBITDA reportedly fell year over year.
Cogeco Inc. (TSX: CGO) released results after the market closed on October 28 for the quarter ended August 31, 2026. The earnings calendar lists EPS of C$2.04 against an estimate of -C$2.62, a reported positive surprise of 177.86%. Because the estimate was below zero, that percentage needs context. It does not, on its own, show that operating performance improved. Supplemental coverage of the company’s release reports revenue of C$713.9 million, down 2.4% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA down 4.1%. The release reportedly raised the quarterly dividend by 2% to C$1.007 and gave fiscal 2027 guidance for lower revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
Recent earnings trend
Cogeco Inc.
CGO.TO
CGO.TO
Cogeco Inc.
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$444.63M
Div. yield
8.47%
Div. / share
$3.88
52W high
$74.59
52W low
$43.51
1W change
-1.76%
Beta
0.63
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering CGO · as of Oct 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast CGO stock price to rise 50.2% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$70.50
+50.2% Upside
Previously C$74.00 on Sep 17, 2026
Current Price
C$46.95
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on CGO's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
31.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
23.9%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$39.27
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$44.24 | C$39.71 – C$49.29 |
| 60 trading days | C$41.68 | C$35.77 – C$48.56 |
| 90 trading days | C$39.27 | C$32.57 – C$47.36 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 2026-10-28 | 2.0400 | -2.6200 | +177.9% |
| 2026-05-31 | 2026-07-15 | 3.1000 | 2.2700 | +36.6% |
| 2026-02-28 | 2026-04-09 | 2.1200 | 2.0700 | +2.4% |
| 2025-11-30 | 2026-01-13 | 3.0000 | 2.1600 | +38.9% |
| 2025-08-31 | 2025-10-29 | 2.1200 | 2.0800 | +1.9% |
| 2025-05-31 | 2025-07-15 | 2.4000 | 2.1800 | +10.1% |
Investor takeaway: CGO beat the calendar’s EPS estimate, extending its run to four consecutive quarters. But the comparison is shaped by a negative estimate, while revenue and adjusted EBITDA fell year over year and fiscal 2027 guidance points to further declines. Canadian investors should consider the operating outlook and dividend sustainability alongside the headline earnings result. The supplied fundamentals snapshot also shows negative trailing EPS and a negative profit margin, underscoring the difference between adjusted quarterly earnings and overall profitability.
C$2.04 EPS versus an estimate of -C$2.62
The calendar reports a 177.86% positive surprise. But because the estimate was negative, the percentage is less straightforward than a typical beat. The operating figures provide important context: supplemental coverage reports Q4 revenue of C$713.9 million, down 2.4% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA down 4.1%.
Bull case
Cogeco has beaten EPS estimates in each of the past four reported quarters. Its latest EPS of C$2.04 was well above the calendar estimate. The reported 2% dividend increase may interest investors seeking income, and the average analyst target of C$70.50 is well above the last close of C$46.95. Earlier coverage also noted growth in adjusted EBITDA from Cogeco’s Canadian operations in Q3.
Bear case
The 177.9% surprise is not a typical beat against a positive estimate: actual EPS was C$2.04, compared with an estimate of -C$2.62. Supplemental coverage reports that Q4 revenue fell 2.4% and adjusted EBITDA fell 4.1%. Fiscal 2027 guidance calls for declines in both. Earlier coverage also pointed to U.S. competition and a large non-cash impairment. The stock closed below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the supplied statistical forecast points lower over the next 90 days. A high dividend yield and recent increase do not, on their own, show that the payout is secure.
Analysis
Cogeco reported fiscal Q4 EPS of C$2.04, compared with the calendar estimate of -C$2.62. The reported surprise was 177.86%. Since the estimate was negative, that figure measures the difference from a forecasted loss, not a typical beat over a positive earnings estimate.
Cogeco has beaten estimates in each of its last four reported quarters. EPS was C$3.00 versus C$2.16 for the quarter ended November 30, 2025; C$2.12 versus C$2.07 in February 2026; and C$3.10 versus C$2.27 in May 2026, before the latest result. The automatically inserted recent-earnings trend table shows the quarter-by-quarter record. For company background and market information, see the Cogeco stock page.
Analysis
The supplied earnings calendar lists a one-analyst consensus for the next period of C$2.34 EPS and C$692.97 million in revenue. It estimates year-over-year EPS growth of 10.5% and a revenue decline of 5.3%. The EPS estimate was revised down from C$2.51 over the past 30 days, with one downward revision and none upward. These are forecasts, not reported results.
Separately, supplemental coverage of Cogeco’s October 28 release reports Q4 revenue of C$713.9 million, down 2.4% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA down 4.1%. It also says the company expects lower revenue and adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2027. Investors should look beyond the EPS comparison and consider subscriber and competitive trends, margins, and cost management. Earlier coverage cited U.S. competition and a non-cash impairment, which was described as having no effect on cash flow or day-to-day operations.
The supplied snapshot lists a market capitalization of about C$444.6 million, trailing EPS of -C$36.10, a profit margin of -11.78%, and a dividend yield of 8.47%.
Analysis
The supplied analyst-target data gives an average target of C$70.50, compared with the last close of C$46.95. That implies 50.2% upside to the average target. The data labels the consensus rating bullish based on the target-to-price comparison; a formal rating is unavailable for Canadian listings. Analyst targets are estimates, not guarantees. See the analyst ratings section for details.
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model, which is not financial advice, gives a mean forecast of C$39.27 from a reference price of C$46.95 dated October 29. Its 68% range is C$32.57 to C$47.36, and its 95% range is C$27.01 to C$57.10. The model’s mean forecasts for 30, 60, and 90 days are C$44.24, C$41.68, and C$39.27. This is a statistical projection, not an analyst target or an estimate of fair value. See the price-prediction section for details.
At the reported last close, CGO was below its 50-day average of C$51.45 and its 200-day average of C$62.21. It was above its 52-week low of C$43.51.
Best next step
Keep exploring this topic
If you want to go deeper, these are the most useful follow-up pages and tools for this topic.
Broker comparison
Best trading platforms in Canada
Compare $0-commission brokers before you act on a ticker story.
Safe cash
Best GIC rates in Canada
If the story makes you want to de-risk, compare guaranteed rates next.
HISA roundup
Best high-interest savings accounts
Keep dry powder in a no-fee savings account instead of chequing.
TFSA room
Check TFSA contribution room
Shelter the next contribution before you buy.
Wealth Awesome
Timely coverage of Canadian stocks, earnings, dividends, and market movers for DIY investors. Stories are checked against exchange data and public filings.
View Full Profile →✅ Reviewed by Certified Financial Professionals
This content has been reviewed by CFA® charterholders and Certified Financial Planners (CFP®) with over a decade of experience in Canadian financial markets. All information is fact-checked against official Canadian sources and regulations.
Why these credentials matter: CFA® charterholders complete 900+ hours of rigorous study in investment analysis and ethics. CFP® professionals are held to the highest standards of financial planning competency and fiduciary duty in Canada.
⚠️ Professional Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized financial advice. While our team brings professional expertise, individual circumstances vary. For personalized guidance, consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or mortgage specialist.
