Eldorado Gold’s third-quarter adjusted EPS fell short of expectations as the company lowered its 2026 production outlook and spent heavily on projects nearing commercial production.
Eldorado Gold Corp. (TSX: ELD) reported adjusted earnings of US$0.49 per share for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, 10.9% below the US$0.55 consensus estimate. Revenue was US$511.9 million, and net earnings attributable to shareholders were US$118.0 million. The company also lowered its 2026 production outlook, citing weaker expected output at several operations and a slower-than-planned ramp-up at Skouries. For Canadian investors, the quarter came down to a trade-off: strong gold prices and operating cash flow, but delays and heavy project spending.
Recent earnings trend
Eldorado Gold Corp
ELD.TO
ELD.TO
Eldorado Gold Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$11.80B
P/E
11.4x
52W high
$69.07
52W low
$34.51
1W change
-1.89%
Beta
1.51
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ELD · as of Oct 30, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast ELD stock price to rise 51.8% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$68.68
+51.8% Upside
Previously C$68.77 on Oct 29, 2026
Current Price
C$45.24
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ELD's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
57.4%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
61.8%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+5.5%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$46.13
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$45.54 | C$37.35 – C$55.51 |
| 60 trading days | C$45.83 | C$34.64 – C$60.65 |
| 90 trading days | C$46.13 | C$32.73 – C$65.01 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 6 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | 0.4900 | 0.5500 | -10.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-30 | 0.5400 | 0.5700 | -5.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-30 | 0.9500 | 0.6800 | +39.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 0.6300 | 0.6000 | +5.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-30 | 0.4100 | 0.4700 | -12.8% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-31 | 0.4400 | 0.4900 | -10.2% |
Investor takeaway: The earnings miss matters, but so does what drove it. Eldorado generated US$248.8 million in operating cash flow before working-capital changes. Consolidated free cash flow was negative US$191.1 million as the company invested in Skouries and McIlvenna Bay. Eldorado also lowered its 2026 production outlook, with Skouries ramping up more slowly than planned. You can follow ELD.TO’s results and operating updates on the Eldorado Gold stock page and compare this quarter with the recent earnings trend above.
US$0.49 adjusted EPS, versus US$0.55 expected
The 10.9% shortfall followed two quarterly misses in a row. Adjusted EPS was US$0.54 versus US$0.57 in Q2, after beating estimates in Q1 and Q4 2025. Basic EPS for Q3 was US$0.45. The lower 2026 production outlook and slower Skouries ramp-up help explain the results.
Bull case
Gold sales averaged US$4,326 per ounce, and adjusted EBITDA reached US$275.2 million. Lamaque continued to benefit from high-grade Ormaque ore. Eldorado says Skouries and McIlvenna Bay are moving toward commercial production, which the company expects in late Q4 2026. That timing depends on how the ramp-up progresses.
Bear case
Eldorado lowered its 2026 production guidance, including its Skouries gold production forecast, from 60,000–100,000 ounces to 10,000–35,000 ounces. Lower expected output at Kisladag and Olympias also weighed on the outlook. Negative consolidated free cash flow shows how much the company is investing, while the slower ramp-up adds execution risk. Shares closed at C$45.24, below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. That price context does not explain what caused the share price move.
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