Enerflex reported quarterly EPS of C$0.7385, beating the C$0.57 estimate. Record bookings and stronger free cash flow add context to the surprise.
Enerflex Ltd. (TSX: EFX.TO) released its third-quarter 2026 results before markets opened on October 29. Calendar data shows EPS of 0.7385 against an estimate of 0.57, a 29.6% beat. The company reports its results in U.S. dollars: net earnings were US$55 million, and basic EPS was US$0.45. These figures use different sources and measures, so treat the calendar surprise and reported basic EPS as separate data points. Revenue was US$623 million, down from US$777 million a year earlier.
Recent earnings trend
Enerflex Ltd.
EFX.TO
EFX.TO
Enerflex Ltd.
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$4.14B
P/E
55.6x
Div. yield
0.35%
Div. / share
$0.12
52W high
$39.85
52W low
$17.54
1W change
+5.48%
Beta
2.05
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering EFX · as of Oct 28, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast EFX stock price to rise 50.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$50.88
+50.1% Upside
Previously C$50.75 on Oct 27, 2026
Current Price
C$33.90
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on EFX's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
69.0%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
52.9%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+33.6%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$38.22
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$35.28 | C$27.80 – C$44.77 |
| 60 trading days | C$36.72 | C$26.22 – C$51.43 |
| 90 trading days | C$38.22 | C$25.30 – C$57.74 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-29 | 0.7385 | 0.5700 | +29.6% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 0.6000 | 0.4700 | +27.7% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | 0.5200 | 0.5200 | +0.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | -0.6525 | -0.0600 | -987.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 0.5900 | 0.5800 | +1.7% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-07 | 0.6700 | 0.1600 | +318.8% |
Investor takeaway: Enerflex paired a positive calendar EPS surprise with US$102 million in free cash flow, record Engineered Systems bookings of US$1.024 billion and a US$2.136-billion backlog. But revenue and adjusted EBITDA fell year over year, and reported basic EPS was US$0.45. For Canadian investors, the key question is whether Enerflex can turn its large backlog—especially in natural-gas-fired power generation—into profitable work that generates cash, while keeping its balance sheet in check. The board also raised the quarterly dividend by about 17%, to US$0.035 per share.
US$102 million in quarterly free cash flow
Free cash flow rose to US$102 million from US$43 million in the same quarter last year. That helped reduce net debt and supported the dividend increase. The improvement stands out alongside lower revenue and adjusted EBITDA, but one quarter doesn’t establish a lasting trend.
Bull case
Enerflex generated more cash and strengthened its balance sheet. Net debt fell to US$312 million from US$584 million a year earlier, and its bank-adjusted net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 0.6 times. Engineered Systems bookings hit a record US$1.024 billion, with backlog at US$2.136 billion. The company also said its behind-the-meter natural-gas-fired power-generation backlog topped 1.75 gigawatts, including awards secured in early Q4. Gross margin rose to 22.8% of revenue from 22.1%, and the dividend increase means a larger direct return for shareholders.
Bear case
Revenue fell 19.8% year over year to US$623 million, while adjusted EBITDA dropped to US$129 million from US$145 million. Operating income was US$77 million, down from US$102 million a year earlier. Reported basic EPS of US$0.45 is also below the calendar’s 0.7385 actual, so don’t confuse the headline estimate comparison with the company’s reported figure. Based on the supplied data, Enerflex has a 2.06% profit margin and a P/E of about 55.6. A large backlog doesn’t guarantee completed, profitable work. Execution, project timing and margins remain risks.
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