First Quantum Minerals reported adjusted Q3 earnings of US$0.29 per share, more than twice the calendar estimate of US$0.14. Higher copper production and prices helped, but the company also tightened its production outlook and renewed attention turned to Cobre Panamá.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (TSX: FM) reported its third-quarter 2026 results after markets closed on October 28. Adjusted earnings were US$0.29 per share, compared with the supplied calendar estimate of US$0.14, a 107.1% beat. Revenue reached US$2.086 billion, up 38% from the previous quarter and above the US$1.78 billion estimate cited in the company’s results coverage. For Canadian investors, the earnings beat stands out, but trailing EPS remains negative and the outlook depends on operating costs, copper prices and the uncertain future of Cobre Panamá.
Recent earnings trend
First Quantum Minerals Ltd
FM.TO
FM.TO
First Quantum Minerals Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$29.94B
52W high
$49.27
52W low
$27.06
1W change
+1.09%
Beta
2.06
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FM · as of Oct 30, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast FM stock price to rise 46.4% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$50.44
+46.4% Upside
Previously C$50.67 on Oct 29, 2026
Current Price
C$34.46
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FM's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
63.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
56.9%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$28.82
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$32.47 | C$26.08 – C$40.43 |
| 60 trading days | C$30.59 | C$22.44 – C$41.71 |
| 90 trading days | C$28.82 | C$19.72 – C$42.13 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 6 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | 0.2900 | 0.1400 | +107.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-27 | -0.1300 | -0.0400 | -225.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-28 | -0.1800 | 0.0500 | -460.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-10 | 0.0100 | 0.0700 | -85.7% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | -0.0200 | 0.0600 | -133.3% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-23 | 0.0200 | -0.0400 | +150.0% |
Investor takeaway: Earnings and cash generation improved sharply, helped by higher sales volumes, stronger realized metal prices and lower fuel costs. But First Quantum narrowed its 2026 copper production guidance and raised its copper cost guidance range amid fuel and currency pressures. The Cobre Panamá situation also remains unresolved. The earnings beat is encouraging, but it does not remove these risks.
US$0.29 adjusted EPS, versus US$0.14 estimated
That’s a 107.1% beat against the supplied calendar estimate. First Quantum also reported Q3 revenue of US$2.086 billion and EBITDA of US$844 million. The earnings trend table and chart are inserted automatically. They put this result in context alongside recent losses and misses.
Bull case
Copper production rose 8% from Q2 to 108,959 tonnes, and adjusted EPS improved from a Q2 loss of US$0.13 to US$0.29. EBITDA climbed to US$844 million from US$400 million in the previous quarter. News coverage also reported free cash flow well above BMO’s forecast and a US$98 million reduction in net debt, to US$5.3 billion. If production and copper prices hold up, the quarter shows the earnings potential management sees in the business.
Bear case
The recovery is uneven. First Quantum narrowed its copper production guidance to 405,000–435,000 tonnes, citing lower grades at Sentinel and Kansanshi. It also raised its copper C1 cash-cost guidance to US$2.50–US$2.65 per pound. Trailing EPS remains negative at -US$0.14, and the profit margin is -1.44%. Processing at Cobre Panamá is progressing, but the mine’s long-term future depends on a possible agreement and government decisions. Current stockpiles are expected to support processing only until mid-2027.
Analysis
For the three months ended September 30, First Quantum reported adjusted earnings of US$0.29 per share, compared with the supplied calendar estimate of US$0.14. Net earnings attributable to shareholders were US$0.25 per share. Revenue was US$2.086 billion, gross profit was US$678 million and EBITDA was US$844 million.
The company said results improved from Q2 because of higher sales volumes, better realized metal prices, lower fuel costs and the end of its hedging program on June 30. Copper production rose 8% quarter over quarter to 108,959 tonnes, while copper sales totalled 109,841 tonnes. Gold production reached 47,095 ounces, and nickel production was 9,831 tonnes. Free cash flow was stronger than BMO’s forecast, and net debt fell US$98 million to US$5.3 billion. For more company details, see the First Quantum Minerals stock page.
Analysis
First Quantum lowered the top end of its 2026 copper production guidance, from 475,000 to 435,000 tonnes, leaving the range at 405,000–435,000 tonnes. The change reflects lower grades at Sentinel and Kansanshi so far this year. The company also narrowed its gold guidance to 150,000–170,000 ounces and raised its nickel guidance to 40,000–45,000 tonnes.
Copper C1 cash-cost guidance is now US$2.50–US$2.65 per pound. The range accounts for sensitivity to high fuel prices and a strong Zambian kwacha. At Cobre Panamá, all three processing trains came online in sequence during the quarter as the authorized stockpile program advanced. First Quantum says available stockpiles can support processing until mid-2027.
Panama’s Interministerial Commission recommended assessing whether a new agreement could resolve outstanding arbitrations and allow a possible restart, alongside an orderly, self-financed closure. The President is reviewing the report, and the mine’s long-term future remains uncertain.
Analysis
The supplied analyst-target data gives an average target of C$50.44, compared with the last close of C$34.46. That implies 46.4% upside to the average target. The source describes the consensus as bullish based on the average target versus the last close. A formal rating is not available for Canadian listings. See the analyst targets section.
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model gives a mean forecast of C$28.82. Its 68% range is C$19.72–C$42.13, and its 95% range is C$13.49–C$61.59. This is a statistical model, not financial advice or a price target. See the price prediction section.
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