Imperial Oil’s third-quarter EPS beat estimates as record profit and strong downstream results helped offset pipeline-related production disruptions.
Imperial Oil Ltd. (TSX: IMO) reported third-quarter 2026 EPS of C$5.11, 6.02% above the calendar estimate of C$4.82. The quarter ended September 30, and the company reported before market open on October 30. EPS also beat estimates by 8.39% in the previous quarter, after falling short in the first quarter. For Canadian investors, the positive surprise is only part of the story: company news points to record downstream earnings alongside limits on upstream production. See the Imperial Oil stock page for more company and share information.
Recent earnings trend
Imperial Oil Ltd
IMO.TO
IMO.TO
Imperial Oil Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$91.32B
P/E
15.4x
Div. yield
1.81%
Div. / share
$3.33
52W high
$194.00
52W low
$113.03
1W change
+2.52%
Beta
0.91
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering IMO · as of Oct 29, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast IMO stock price to fall 14.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BearishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$166.29
-14.1% Upside
Previously C$165.65 on Oct 26, 2026
Current Price
C$193.48
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on IMO's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
32.2%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
27.7%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+42.5%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$225.15
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$203.51 | C$182.14 – C$227.39 |
| 60 trading days | C$214.06 | C$182.98 – C$250.42 |
| 90 trading days | C$225.15 | C$185.79 – C$272.85 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 5 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-01-29 | — | 4.8300 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-30 | 5.1100 | 4.8200 | +6.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-31 | 4.5200 | 4.1700 | +8.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-01 | 1.9400 | 2.4000 | -19.2% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-01-30 | 1.9700 | 1.8900 | +4.2% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-31 | 2.1700 | 1.9600 | +10.7% |
Investor takeaway: The EPS beat extends a strong recent run, but production and valuation remain important questions. Company news reports record third-quarter net income of C$2.454 billion on sales of C$16.205 billion. Strong downstream results and growing renewable diesel output helped offset lower crude volumes and disruptions to third-party pipelines. Imperial Oil reaffirmed its quarterly dividend at C$0.87 per share, payable January 1, 2027. Investors will want to see whether upstream operations become more reliable and whether refining strength and cash generation continue.
C$5.11 EPS, 6.02% above estimate
Imperial Oil’s calendar EPS of C$5.11 topped the C$4.82 estimate by C$0.29. Company news also reports third-quarter net income of C$2.454 billion and sales of C$16.205 billion. These figures come from a different reporting source and should not be confused with the calendar EPS estimate. The automatically inserted earnings trend table shows the quarter-by-quarter comparison.
Bull case
Imperial Oil’s integrated operations can help balance uneven results across its businesses. Record downstream earnings, growing renewable diesel output, and a reaffirmed dividend support the view that refining and other cash-generating operations can cushion upstream disruptions. The stock closed at C$193.48 on October 30, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. EPS has beaten estimates in three of the past four reported quarters.
Bear case
Crude volumes fell this quarter, and pipeline disruptions highlight the risk of further production setbacks. Oil sands operations also face ongoing emissions and decarbonization pressures. Maintenance and sustaining capital needs could limit the funds available for shareholder returns. Valuation is another concern: the average analyst target of C$166.29 is 14.1% below the last close. Recent share-price gains may also leave less room for operational setbacks.
Analysis
Imperial Oil reported calendar EPS of C$5.11 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, compared with an estimate of C$4.82—a 6.02% beat. Company news describes record net income of C$2.454 billion on sales of C$16.205 billion. It credits strong downstream results and growing renewable diesel output, even as crude volumes fell and third-party pipeline disruptions affected upstream operations. The company maintained its quarterly dividend at C$0.87 per share, payable January 1, 2027. The EPS beat is encouraging, but investors should consider the production constraints when judging whether these results can continue.
Analysis
Imperial Oil beat estimates in three of its last four reported quarters. EPS came in 4.23% above estimates in Q4 2025, 19.17% below in Q1 2026, 8.39% above in Q2, and 6.02% above in Q3. The automatically inserted earnings trend table and chart show the same pattern. The next-quarter calendar consensus is C$3.64, based on five analysts, with estimates ranging from C$2.30 to C$4.11. The consensus has fallen from C$3.91 thirty days ago. Revenue consensus is C$13.52 billion, based on two analysts. These are forecasts, not company guidance. The key question is whether upstream production can stabilize while downstream results remain strong. For more background, visit the IMO.TO stock page.
Analysis
The average analyst target is C$166.29, compared with the October 30 closing price of C$193.48. That implies 14.1% downside to the average target. The supplied rating summary is Moderately Bearish, based on the average target relative to the last close. A formal rating is not available for Canadian listings. Analyst targets are estimates, not guarantees. See the analyst ratings section for details.
Analysis
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model gives a mean forecast of C$225.15. Its 68% range is C$185.79 to C$272.85, and its 95% range is C$153.31 to C$330.66. The model’s mean estimates for 30, 60, and 90 days are C$203.51, C$214.06, and C$225.15, respectively. These are model estimates, not financial advice or guaranteed returns. See the price-prediction section for more.
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