Intact Financial’s third-quarter adjusted earnings beat the calendar estimate, but catastrophe losses were higher than expected.
Intact Financial Corporation (TSX: IFC) reported its third-quarter 2026 results after markets closed on November 3. Calendar data shows EPS of C$3.63, 20.6% above the C$3.01 estimate. The earnings-call highlights also point to a solid operating quarter, with a 16% operating return on equity and 5% top-line growth despite C$660 million in catastrophe losses. Here’s what investors should know and what to watch next. See the IFC stock page for more company data.
Recent earnings trend
Intact Financial Corporation
IFC.TO
IFC.TO
Intact Financial Corporation
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$49.73B
P/E
15.7x
52W high
$303.79
52W low
$236.92
1W change
+7.85%
Beta
0.31
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering IFC · as of Oct 26, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast IFC stock price to rise 9.4% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$308.62
+9.4% Upside
Previously C$310.54 on Oct 19, 2026
Current Price
C$282.02
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on IFC's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
26.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
24.0%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+11.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$293.31
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$285.73 | C$260.38 – C$313.56 |
| 60 trading days | C$289.50 | C$253.85 – C$330.15 |
| 90 trading days | C$293.31 | C$249.71 – C$344.53 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 9 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-09 | — | 4.8300 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | 3.6300 | 3.0100 | +20.6% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-28 | 4.3300 | 3.4700 | +24.8% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 4.6100 | 4.0800 | +13.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-10 | 5.8900 | 4.6900 | +25.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | 4.4600 | 4.2100 | +5.9% |
Investor takeaway: The EPS beat came with a mixed underwriting picture. Intact reported a 94% overall combined ratio, with catastrophe losses four points above expectations. Operating ROE held at 16%, marking a tenth straight quarter above 15%. Investors will want to see whether growth and underwriting discipline can balance weather volatility and pressure in personal property and UK&I.
C$3.63 EPS, 20.6% above the C$3.01 estimate
The calendar EPS figure beat the estimate by C$0.62. Intact also reported a 94% overall combined ratio and 16% operating ROE in its earnings-call highlights. The four most recent comparable quarters in the supplied history also beat estimates. The auto-inserted earnings trend table shows the results for each quarter.
Bull case
Operating ROE remained strong, and the U.S. segment recorded an 85.2% combined ratio for its 13th straight quarter below 90%. Personal auto premiums grew 10%. Management said recurring pretax earnings from AI-related activity are nearing $250 million and could double within 24 months. Investment and distribution income also increased year over year.
Bear case
Catastrophe losses reached C$660 million, four points above expectations. Canada personal property posted a 105% combined ratio, including 33 points from catastrophe losses. UK&I growth was flat, and the consolidated expense ratio is expected to be at the high end of the 33%–34% range in 2026. Alberta auto reforms are also expected to weigh on results once in 2027.
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