Methanex’s September-quarter earnings came in well above estimates, following three straight quarters of misses.
Methanex Corporation (TSX: MX) reported third-quarter 2026 results after markets closed on October 29. Calendar data shows earnings per share of C$3.69, compared with an estimate of C$2.86—a 29.0% surprise. The company also reported US$1.39 billion in revenue, up 49.6% from a year earlier, and US$543 million in adjusted EBITDA. The strong quarter marks a sharp turnaround, but gas supply, methanol prices and the company’s production footprint remain key factors for its outlook. Read more on the Methanex stock page.
Recent earnings trend
Methanex Corporation
MX.TO
MX.TO
Methanex Corporation
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$7.72B
P/E
18.1x
52W high
$100.83
52W low
$47.30
1W change
+12.81%
Beta
0.98
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering MX · as of Sep 17, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast MX stock price to fall 8.5% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BearishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$91.33
-8.5% Upside
Current Price
C$99.85
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on MX's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
47.1%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
44.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$119.37
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$105.97 | C$90.08 – C$124.67 |
| 60 trading days | C$112.47 | C$89.38 – C$141.53 |
| 90 trading days | C$119.37 | C$90.09 – C$158.17 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 8 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-01-27 | — | 3.8100 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-29 | 3.6900 | 2.8600 | +29.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-28 | 3.8700 | 4.0100 | -3.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | 0.3000 | 0.4200 | -28.6% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-05 | -0.1400 | 0.6500 | -121.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | 0.0600 | 0.4100 | -85.4% |
Investor takeaway: The earnings beat was significant, but one strong quarter doesn’t erase the recent record: Methanex beat estimates in only one of its last four comparable quarters. Investors should weigh the rebound and reported cash generation against the company’s exposure to gas supply and a volatile methanol market. MX.TO closed at C$99.85 on October 30, near its 52-week high of C$100.83.
C$3.69 EPS versus C$2.86 estimated
The 29.0% surprise points to a strong quarter, but Methanex beat estimates in only one of its last four reported quarters. The company separately reported basic EPS of US$3.43. These figures use different measures and aren’t directly comparable.
Bull case
Methanex said tight methanol supply and higher realized prices helped drive the quarter’s results. Its average realized price was about US$510 per tonne. Adjusted EBITDA reached US$543 million, while revenue rose to US$1.39 billion from US$927.4 million a year earlier. The company also reported net income of US$265 million, compared with a loss a year ago.
Methanex has authorized a share buyback of up to 5% of its outstanding shares. News coverage also reports that the company is retiring US$300 million in 2027 notes. If strong operating results and cash generation continue, they could support debt reduction and returns to shareholders.
Bear case
Methanol prices and access to feedstock can shift quickly, so this quarter may not reflect future results. Methanex reported lower Chilean production because of limits on Argentine gas supply, an idled Titan plant in Trinidad, and plans to idle its New Zealand facilities from 2027. These constraints could increase the company’s reliance on production from other sites.
The recent earnings record also calls for caution. Methanex missed estimates in the previous three quarters, including a loss in the December 2025 quarter. At C$99.85, the stock closed above the supplied average analyst target of C$91.33.
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