
Morguard REIT’s Q3 revenue grew, but lower net operating income and funds from operations raise questions about property-level performance.
Morguard Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX: MRT.UN) reported results after market close on October 28 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The earnings calendar lists earnings per unit of C$0.176 but gives no estimate, so there’s no basis to call the result a beat or miss. A supplemental summary of the company’s release says revenue rose 4.7% year over year to C$60.4 million. But net operating income (NOI) fell 12.6% to C$27.3 million, and funds from operations (FFO) dropped to C$11.2 million from C$15.0 million. For this diversified REIT, the gap between revenue growth and weaker NOI and FFO is the main takeaway. Investors will want to know what drove the declines in property-level performance and cash generation.
Recent earnings trend
Morguard Real Estate Investment Trust
MRT-UN.TO
MRT-UN.TO
Morguard Real Estate Investment Trust
Market cap
$476.36M
P/E
35.1x
Div. yield
3.41%
Div. / share
$0.24
52W high
$7.29
52W low
$5.53
1W change
+1.30%
Beta
0.02
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering MRT-UN · as of Sep 17, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast MRT-UN stock price to fall 5.0% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BearishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$6.67
-5.0% Upside
Current Price
C$7.02
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on MRT-UN's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
11.4%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
19.4%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+1.2%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$7.05
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$7.03 | C$6.76 – C$7.31 |
| 60 trading days | C$7.04 | C$6.66 – C$7.44 |
| 90 trading days | C$7.05 | C$6.58 – C$7.55 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | 0.1760 | — | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.0297 | — | — |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | 0.0907 | — | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-11 | -0.1191 | — | — |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | 0.0713 | — | — |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | -0.0262 | — | — |
Investor takeaway: The quarter was mixed: revenue rose, while NOI and FFO fell. The earnings calendar has no EPS estimate, and the available information doesn’t explain the property-level results or provide a full breakdown. Don’t rely on the calendar’s earnings-per-unit figure alone to assess a REIT. NOI and FFO trends, distributions, and the underlying portfolio also matter. Morguard declared an October distribution of C$0.02 per unit, payable November 16 to holders of record October 30. The announcement alone doesn’t show whether current cash flow covers the distribution. Visit the MRT.UN stock page for company metrics and updates.
C$11.2 million
Q3 FFO was C$11.2 million, down from C$15.0 million a year earlier, according to the supplemental results summary. That decline is central to understanding the trust’s cash generation. The available information doesn’t include FFO per unit or a distribution-coverage calculation.
Bull case
Revenue growth means the trust brought in more income year over year. The monthly distribution remains C$0.02 per unit, and the supplied snapshot shows a 3.41% yield. The unit price is also above its 200-day moving average, though slightly below its 50-day average. If revenue growth leads to stronger NOI and FFO, the weaker cash-flow results may not last. But the available data doesn’t confirm a recovery.
Bear case
NOI fell 12.6%, and FFO dropped to C$11.2 million from C$15.0 million, despite revenue growth. The supplied snapshot also lists a 5.80% profit margin and a P/E of 35.15. For REITs, operating and cash-flow measures are often more useful than conventional earnings multiples. Analyst coverage in the target data is limited: the average target is C$6.67, compared with a last close of C$7.02, suggesting about 5% downside. Investors should assess the distribution against recurring cash generation, not yield alone.
Analysis
Morguard REIT released its third-quarter results after market close on October 28. The results cover the period ended September 30. The earnings calendar lists EPS of C$0.176 but provides no estimate for the quarter, so the figure can’t be called a beat or miss. The historical beat count in the supplied data reflects earlier comparable quarters; it doesn’t fill in the missing estimate for this report.
The supplemental summary of the company’s release says revenue rose 4.7% year over year to C$60.4 million. Meanwhile, NOI fell 12.6% to C$27.3 million, and FFO declined to C$11.2 million from C$15.0 million. Revenue shows top-line income, while NOI and FFO offer more insight into property operations and cash generation. The difference between these results makes the source and quality of revenue growth an important question for investors.
The available information doesn’t include management’s explanation for the declines, results by property type, occupancy, leasing spreads, or debt details. Without those figures, it’s hard to tell whether the weaker NOI and FFO reflect temporary factors or broader operating pressure. The automatically inserted earnings-trend display provides historical context, but it should be considered separately from this quarter’s missing EPS estimate.
Analysis
Morguard declared a monthly distribution of C$0.02 per unit for October, payable November 16 to unitholders of record October 30. The supplied fundamentals snapshot lists a 3.41% yield. Neither the distribution amount nor the yield shows whether recurring cash flow covers the payout. The available data doesn’t include a payout ratio or quarterly FFO per unit.
The analyst-target data lists an average target of C$6.67, compared with a last close of C$7.02, implying about 5% downside. The supplied context describes the consensus as moderately bearish based on the average target and closing price, while noting that a formal rating isn’t available for Canadian listings. Treat the target as a reference, not a forecast or recommendation. See the analyst ratings section and the MRT.UN company page for more context.
Analysis
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day model gives a mean forecast of C$7.05, compared with a current price of C$7.02 as of November 4, 2026. Its 68% range is C$6.58–C$7.55, and its 95% range is C$6.15–C$8.08. The model lists annualized drift of 1.2% and 30-day volatility of 11.4%.
This statistical model isn’t financial advice. It doesn’t explain the REIT’s operating results or predict the market’s response to them. Investors can review the Wealth Awesome price forecast alongside the quarter’s NOI, FFO, distribution, and property-level disclosures.
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