Element Fleet Management’s calendar EPS came in just below estimates, but the company reported year-over-year growth in adjusted earnings and revenue. The main concern is the outlook: 2026 originations are expected to fall short of guidance, and revenue growth is forecast to slow in 2027.
Element Fleet Management Corp. (TSX: EFN) reported results for the third quarter of 2026, ended September 30. Calendar EPS was C$0.49, just below the C$0.50 estimate. In its release, the company reported diluted EPS of US$0.33, up 6% from a year earlier, and adjusted diluted EPS of US$0.35, also up 6%. Net revenue reached US$320.7 million, a 5% increase. For Canadian investors, the small earnings miss comes with a more cautious outlook: Element expects 2026 originations to fall below its guidance range and other full-year financial measures to land at or near the lower end of their ranges.
Recent earnings trend
Element Fleet Management Corp
EFN.TO
EFN.TO
Element Fleet Management Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$7.91B
P/E
19.6x
52W high
$37.23
52W low
$19.39
1W change
-12.60%
Beta
0.44
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering EFN · as of Oct 29, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast EFN stock price to rise 69.8% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$33.90
+69.8% Upside
Previously C$35.30 on Oct 27, 2026
Current Price
C$19.97
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on EFN's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
42.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
35.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$16.70
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$18.82 | C$16.22 – C$21.82 |
| 60 trading days | C$17.73 | C$14.38 – C$21.86 |
| 90 trading days | C$16.70 | C$12.92 – C$21.59 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 9 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-23 | — | 0.5100 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-02 | 0.4900 | 0.5000 | -2.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-05 | 0.4800 | 0.4900 | -2.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 0.4800 | 0.4600 | +4.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-24 | 0.4500 | 0.4600 | -2.2% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | 0.4600 | 0.4500 | +2.2% |
Investor takeaway: Revenue, adjusted EPS, free cash flow per share and vehicles under management all grew this quarter. But the outlook puts the focus on commercial momentum. Originations fell 2% year over year, and management expects 2027 net revenue growth to slow to the low single digits, excluding foreign-exchange effects. The calendar EPS miss was small, but the outlook and recent share weakness make new-client acquisition and fleet growth worth watching. See the EFN stock page for company data and coverage.
US$320.7 million in Q3 net revenue
Net revenue rose 5% year over year, including a US$10 million benefit from foreign exchange. Services revenue grew 5% to US$164 million, helped by more vehicles under management and higher services revenue per vehicle. Adjusted EPS was US$0.35, up from US$0.33 a year earlier. These figures are reported in US dollars and differ from the C$0.49 calendar EPS used to compare results with estimates.
Bull case
Element’s scale and long-term fleet relationships helped drive 5% revenue growth and a 6% increase in adjusted EPS. Vehicles under management rose 3% to 1.58 million, while services revenue grew 5% to US$164 million. Adjusted free cash flow per share increased 7% to US$0.45, and adjusted return on equity rose 140 basis points to 20.2%. The company also returned US$341 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. An expanded partnership with Waymo, announced after the quarter ended, could create new opportunities in mobility services.
Bear case
The earnings miss adds to a mixed recent record: Element beat estimates in one of its last four comparable quarters and missed in the other three. More concerning, management expects 2026 originations to fall short of guidance, with other full-year measures near the bottom of their ranges. It also expects 2027 net revenue growth to slow to the low single digits, excluding foreign exchange. Adjusted operating margin fell 120 basis points year over year to 56.8%. The shares’ last close of C$19.97 was below both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. These figures don’t predict future performance, but they show why investors are watching growth and execution.
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