Restaurant Brands International (TSX: QSR) reported third-quarter results for the period ended September 30, 2026. The supplied earnings calendar shows EPS of US$1.5439 against an estimate of US$1.08, a 42.95% surprise. But the company release and news reports put adjusted EPS at US$1.10, about 1.9% above the same estimate. These are different earnings measures, so the calendar’s 43% headline does not represent the adjusted EPS beat.
Revenue rose 3.1% year over year to US$2.525 billion, slightly below the US$2.54 billion estimate cited in reports. QSR.TO closed at C$102.31 on October 29.
Recent earnings trend
Restaurant Brands International Inc
QSR.TO
QSR.TO
Restaurant Brands International Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$46.87B
P/E
18.6x
52W high
$112.10
52W low
$86.73
1W change
-4.46%
Beta
0.54
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering QSR · as of Oct 27, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast QSR stock price to rise 13.0% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$115.58
+13.0% Upside
Previously C$117.08 on Sep 30, 2026
Current Price
C$102.31
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on QSR's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
18.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
23.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-2.8%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$101.30
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$101.97 | C$95.65 – C$108.71 |
| 60 trading days | C$101.64 | C$92.84 – C$111.26 |
| 90 trading days | C$101.30 | C$90.67 – C$113.17 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 23 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-29 | 1.5439 | 1.0800 | +43.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 1.5000 | 1.4500 | +3.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 1.1700 | 1.1300 | +3.5% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-12 | 1.3000 | 1.3100 | -0.8% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-30 | 1.4300 | 1.3900 | +2.9% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-07 | 1.2900 | 1.3300 | -3.0% |
Investor takeaway: The quarter brought modest adjusted EPS growth and positive comparable sales, led by Burger King. But revenue and adjusted EBITDA fell short of estimates cited in company news. The 43% EPS surprise reflects the calendar’s reported measure, while adjusted EPS beat estimates by a much smaller margin. Overall, the results were mixed.
US$1.10 adjusted EPS, versus US$1.08 estimated
Adjusted EPS beat the US$1.08 estimate by about 1.9%, not 43%. The larger 42.95% surprise comes from the supplied earnings calendar’s actual EPS of US$1.5439. It is not the adjusted EPS figure in the company release and news coverage. Revenue rose 3.1% year over year to US$2.525 billion, but missed the US$2.54 billion estimate cited in reports.
Bull case
Global comparable sales rose 3.8%. Burger King U.S. sales were up 8.4%, and International sales rose 3.9%. System-wide sales grew 6.2%, while the restaurant count increased 3.0% to 33,401. Adjusted EPS rose to US$1.10 from US$1.03 a year earlier, and adjusted operating income grew 6.7%. Management said RBI remained on track to deliver 8% organic adjusted operating income growth in 2026.
Bear case
Revenue of US$2.525 billion missed the US$2.54 billion estimate cited in reports. Adjusted EBITDA was US$829 million, below the US$839.2 million estimate in one analysis. Comparable sales were uneven: Popeyes global sales fell 1.8%, a steeper decline than the cited 0.8% estimate. Free cash flow margin fell to 19% from 21.7% a year earlier. QSR.TO’s last close was below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
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