Telesat Corp TSAT Earnings Miss Estimates by 141.4%

Telesat reported a quarterly loss of C$3.09 per share, well above the C$1.28 loss analysts expected. That marks four straight quarters of EPS misses. Revenue and adjusted EBITDA also fell sharply, according to the supplied earnings coverage.

Telesat Corp (TSAT.TO) released its results before market open on October 29 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Its loss of C$3.09 per share was 141.4% worse than the estimated loss of C$1.28. Supplemental coverage reports that revenue fell 20% year over year to C$81 million and adjusted EBITDA dropped 74% to C$12 million. For Canadian investors, the key question is whether Telesat can fund its satellite-network plans while its existing business and earnings remain under pressure.

Recent earnings trend

Analyst coverage: 4 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.

Investor takeaway: Telesat has missed EPS estimates in each of the past four reported quarters, according to the supplied history, which includes 44 comparable quarters. Its planned Lightspeed network offers a potential path to growth, but the near-term outlook includes falling revenue, a large reported loss and GEO debt refinancing needs starting in December 2026. The long-term opportunity comes with significant financing and execution risks.

C$3.09 loss per share

Telesat’s quarterly loss of C$3.09 per share compared with the estimated loss of C$1.28. It was the company’s fourth consecutive quarterly miss in the supplied history. The automatic recent-earnings trend table and chart show the quarter-by-quarter results.

Analysis

Telesat reported a September-quarter loss of C$3.09 per share, compared with the estimated loss of C$1.28. That was a negative 141.4% surprise. The supplied earnings history shows four straight EPS misses, including a C$10.89 loss in the June quarter against an estimated loss of C$1.13. The automatic recent-earnings trend table and chart summarize the results.

Supplemental coverage says third-quarter revenue fell 20% year over year to C$81 million, while adjusted EBITDA dropped 74% to C$12 million. It also reports a C$867 million net loss for the first nine months of 2026. These results show pressure on Telesat’s existing business as it pursues a costly shift to its planned low-Earth-orbit network.

The supplied fundamentals snapshot lists trailing-12-month EPS of negative C$25.11 and a profit margin of negative 102.89%. These figures show the scale of current losses, but they don’t explain what drove the quarter or how quickly results could improve. The available context includes no company-news item beyond supplemental results and filing headlines. Investors should review the full results disclosure for details and reconciliations.

Analysis

Telesat’s long-term plans centre on Lightspeed, its proposed low-Earth-orbit satellite network. The supplied coverage cites a C$5.6 billion LEO backlog and says Telesat reiterated its GEO guidance while lowering its 2026 Lightspeed spending forecast to C$1.1–C$1.3 billion. A backlog can indicate contracted demand, but it isn’t revenue already earned or cash available to build the network.

Recent milestones include a European gateway commissioned with Orange and an agreement with SatPort to develop ground-network infrastructure using a build-to-suit model. Telesat expects global service to begin around Q1 2028. The company also secured a Canadian Arctic military satellite communications contract worth C$2.3 billion over 15 years. Options could bring its potential value to C$2.7 billion. The announcement said the planned constellation would grow from 156 to 225 satellites.

These contracts and infrastructure steps support the opportunity, but success depends on financing, construction and service performance. One near-term concern is GEO debt that starts maturing in December 2026. Telesat says it is working with advisers and debtholders on refinancing. For investors, the balance between cash from the existing business, debt payments and Lightspeed spending is central to the investment case. See the TSAT stock page for company coverage.

Analysis

The supplied analyst-target data show an average target of C$86.74, compared with the last close of C$59.48. That implies 45.8% upside to the average target. The displayed consensus label is bullish because the average target is above the last close. A formal rating isn’t available for Canadian listings. Analyst targets are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. See the analyst ratings section for more context.

Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model gives a mean forecast of C$49.75. Its 68% range is C$33.46 to C$73.98, and its 95% range is C$22.50 to C$110.00. The model’s 30-, 60- and 90-day averages are C$56.04, C$52.80 and C$49.75. It reports annualized drift of negative 50.0% and 30-day volatility of 66.4%. This is a statistical model, not financial advice or a price target. Its wide ranges reflect considerable uncertainty. See the Wealth Awesome price forecast.

TSAT closed at C$59.48 on October 29, below its 50-day moving average of C$64.25 and just above its 200-day average of C$59.37. The supplied data show a one-day decline of 6.87%, but that figure doesn’t establish what caused the move. With earnings under pressure and refinancing unresolved, treat the analyst target and model forecast as separate estimates, not a single consensus view.