Waste Connections reported adjusted EPS of US$1.58 for the third quarter, beating the US$1.52 estimate. Revenue, margins and its full-year outlook also came in higher.
Waste Connections Inc. (TSX: WCN) reported third-quarter 2026 results after markets closed on October 21. For the quarter ended September 30, adjusted earnings rose to US$1.58 per share, up from US$1.44 a year earlier and 3.95% above the consensus estimate. Revenue increased 7.3% year over year to US$2.638 billion, beating the US$2.61 billion estimate by 1.2%. The company raised its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook for the second time this year and announced a 10% dividend increase.
Recent earnings trend
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Waste Connections Inc
WCN.TO
WCN.TO
Waste Connections Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$59.91B
P/E
42.4x
Div. yield
0.58%
Div. / share
$1.36
52W high
$248.39
52W low
$203.03
1W change
+5.94%
Beta
0.48
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering WCN · as of Oct 22, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast WCN stock price to rise 14.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$269.89
+14.1% Upside
Previously C$270.06 on Oct 21, 2026
Current Price
C$236.45
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on WCN's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
22.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
22.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-4.2%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$232.89
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$235.26 | C$217.85 – C$254.05 |
| 60 trading days | C$234.07 | C$209.96 – C$260.95 |
| 90 trading days | C$232.89 | C$203.86 – C$266.06 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 7 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-10 | — | 1.4000 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-21 | 1.5800 | 1.5200 | +3.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-22 | 1.5000 | 1.3600 | +10.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-22 | 1.2300 | 1.1800 | +4.2% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-11 | 1.2900 | 1.2700 | +1.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-21 | 1.4400 | 1.3800 | +4.3% |
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Investor takeaway: WCN paired its earnings and revenue beats with stronger operating results. Adjusted EBITDA reached US$895.8 million, or 34.0% of revenue, while operating margin rose to 20.5% from 17.9% a year earlier. Management pointed to improving landfill activity, commodity-related revenue and stronger execution. A late-quarter jump in diesel prices was a headwind. The company said it remains on track to generate at least US$1.4 billion in adjusted free cash flow in 2026. Investors should also consider the valuation: WCN’s supplied P/E is about 42.4, and its 0.58% dividend yield remains modest despite the increase.
US$1.58 adjusted EPS, versus US$1.52 expected
WCN has now beaten quarterly EPS estimates four quarters in a row. Revenue of US$2.638 billion also topped the US$2.61 billion estimate. Net income was US$359.2 million, or US$1.43 per diluted share. Adjusted net income was US$398.9 million, or US$1.58 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 34.0%.
Bull case
WCN has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of its last four reported quarters. In Q3, adjusted EPS rose about 9.7% year over year, revenue grew 7.3%, and adjusted EBITDA increased to US$895.8 million from US$830.3 million. Management reported a 70-basis-point sequential improvement in solid-waste unit volumes, led by landfill volumes, and 50 basis points of underlying adjusted EBITDA margin expansion.
The higher full-year outlook, more than US$1 billion in share repurchases so far this year and a 10% quarterly dividend increase strengthen the case for WCN. Canadian investors can find the shares on the WCN stock page.
Bear case
A strong quarter doesn’t erase the risks of a premium valuation and rising operating costs. Diesel prices surged late in the quarter, and WCN remains exposed to changes in landfill activity and commodity-related revenue. Its full-year revenue outlook is about US$10.09 billion, while the supplied consensus estimate for next quarter is US$2.60 billion. Future growth and margins will need to support investor expectations.
The dividend increase is welcome, but the supplied yield is 0.58%. WCN closed at C$236.45, below its C$248.39 52-week high, after falling 0.71% that day. These are the supplied closing figures, not evidence of a same-session market reaction to the report.
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