Thinkific has beaten EPS estimates in three of its last four reported quarters. Its next test is a forecast loss and almost no revenue growth.
Thinkific Labs Inc. (TSX: THNC) is set to report third-quarter fiscal 2026 results after market close on November 3. The quarter ended September 30. Current consensus estimates call for EPS of -C$0.02 and revenue of C$18.69 million, up 0.6% year over year. These estimates come from just one analyst for EPS and two for revenue, so treat them as guideposts rather than a broad forecast. Follow the company on our THNC stock page.
Recent earnings trend
Thinkific Labs Inc
THNC.TO
THNC.TO
Thinkific Labs Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$142.19M
52W high
$2.40
52W low
$1.11
1W change
-3.65%
Beta
1.26
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering THNC · as of Nov 2, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast THNC stock price to rise 2.7% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
NeutralBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$2.17
+2.7% Upside
Previously C$2.17 on Oct 30, 2026
Current Price
C$2.11
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on THNC's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
202.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
126.7%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$2.52
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$2.24 | C$1.11 – C$4.51 |
| 60 trading days | C$2.38 | C$0.88 – C$6.39 |
| 90 trading days | C$2.52 | C$0.75 – C$8.47 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | — | -0.0300 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-05 | -0.0069 | -0.0300 | +77.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-04 | -0.0200 | -0.0200 | +0.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-05 | 0.0100 | -0.0100 | +200.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | 0.0025 | -0.0100 | +125.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-06 | 0.0100 | -0.0100 | +200.0% |
Investor takeaway: The main question is whether Thinkific can keep narrowing its losses without sacrificing growth as it focuses on profitability and cash generation. It has beaten EPS estimates in three of its last four comparable quarters, but the consensus estimate has fallen from -C$0.01 to -C$0.02 over the past 30 days. A small EPS beat may matter less than revenue, adjusted EBITDA and management’s update on costs and cash flow.
EPS consensus: -C$0.02
One analyst expects a loss of C$0.02 per share for the September quarter, compared with EPS of C$0.00 a year earlier. The estimate was -C$0.01 30 days ago. Two analysts expect revenue of C$18.69 million. Thinkific’s recent record of beating EPS estimates offers some context, but the small analyst sample makes revenue, adjusted EBITDA and management’s outlook important measures to watch.
Bull case
Thinkific’s recent EPS results offer some encouragement. It reported a loss of C$0.0069 per share in the June quarter, compared with an estimated loss of C$0.03, and posted positive EPS in the December and September 2025 quarters. In Q2, revenue was US$18.6 million, up 3%, adjusted EBITDA was US$0.3 million, and cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totalled US$51.0 million at June 30.
In September, Thinkific announced a reorganization aimed at saving US$19 million annually. Management also raised its Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance to 7%–10% of revenue. If the savings improve margins without significantly hurting sales, the results could support the case for a more disciplined path to cash generation.
Bear case
The consensus still points to a loss, and the EPS estimate has been revised down over the past month. Revenue is expected to grow just 0.6%, so a weak sales result would raise questions beyond profitability. The reorganization affected 96 employees, but the savings target and future free-cash-flow margins are goals, not results already achieved.
Thinkific’s trailing 12-month EPS is -C$0.01, and its profit margin is -1.25%. The company has yet to show consistent profitability. And with only one analyst contributing to the EPS estimate, the consensus could shift significantly as new information comes in.
Analysis
Thinkific will report third-quarter fiscal 2026 results after market close on November 3. The quarter ended September 30. Current estimates call for EPS of -C$0.02 and revenue of C$18.69 million, with revenue growth of 0.6%. Coverage is limited: one analyst contributes to the EPS estimate and two to the revenue estimate. The EPS consensus has moved from -C$0.01 to -C$0.02 in the past 30 days, with no upward or downward revisions recorded during that period.
That makes it worth looking beyond whether EPS comes in slightly above or below the estimate. Revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA and management’s comments on the savings plan will help show whether Thinkific can improve its operations without weakening demand.
Analysis
Thinkific has beaten EPS estimates in three of its last four reported quarters. In June 2026, it reported EPS of -C$0.0069 against an estimate of -C$0.03. In March, actual EPS of -C$0.02 matched the estimate. Results also came in above estimates in December and September 2025. The recent earnings trend table shows the quarter-by-quarter record.
The business results provide more context. Q2 revenue was US$18.6 million, up 3%, and adjusted EBITDA was US$0.3 million. At June 30, Thinkific had US$51.0 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.
In September, the company announced a reorganization affecting 96 employees, with a target of US$19 million in annualized savings. It also raised Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance to 7%–10% of revenue and set a goal of free-cash-flow margins of at least 25% starting in fiscal 2027. These are targets to measure against future results, not savings or margins already achieved.
A September partnership with Articulate added a native LMS integration for eligible joint customers. Its potential value for the product and customers will take time to assess.
Analysis
For Canadian investors, the estimates need to be weighed against Thinkific’s results and the limited analyst coverage. A result near the EPS consensus could still be encouraging if revenue holds up and adjusted EBITDA falls within the company’s Q3 guidance. A better-than-expected EPS result would be less convincing if sales weaken or the outlook raises concerns about growth.
The stock closed at C$2.11 on October 30, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages and below its 52-week high of C$2.40. These indicators don’t predict the earnings result. The average analyst price target is C$2.17, about 2.7% above the last close. See the analyst price targets.
Wealth Awesome’s 90-day price forecast is based on a statistical model, not financial advice. Its mean forecast is C$2.52, with a wide 68% range of C$0.75 to C$8.47. Treat the model forecast and its ranges as uncertain estimates, not a promise or recommendation.
The key questions are whether Thinkific can deliver on revenue, improve adjusted profitability and make measurable progress toward its longer-term cash-flow goals.
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