TransAlta reports before the market opens on November 3. Investors will be watching whether earnings improve and how the company handles its recently reshaped power portfolio.
TransAlta Corp. (TSX: TA.TO) is set to report results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, before the market opens on November 3. Three analysts estimate earnings of C$0.05 per share, with forecasts ranging from C$0.02 to C$0.10. That would be an improvement on the C$0.02-per-share loss a year earlier, but it wouldn’t confirm a lasting return to profitability. TransAlta’s trailing 12-month EPS is -C$0.30, and its profit margin is -1.01%. Follow the company on the TransAlta stock page.
Recent earnings trend
TransAlta Corp
TA.TO
TA.TO
TransAlta Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$5.73B
Div. yield
1.44%
Div. / share
$0.27
52W high
$24.24
52W low
$15.50
1W change
+5.72%
Beta
0.48
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering TA · as of Oct 2, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast TA stock price to rise 29.7% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$23.50
+29.7% Upside
Previously C$23.68 on Sep 23, 2026
Current Price
C$18.12
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on TA's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
38.0%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
34.7%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+10.7%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$18.82
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$18.35 | C$16.10 – C$20.92 |
| 60 trading days | C$18.59 | C$15.44 – C$22.37 |
| 90 trading days | C$18.82 | C$15.00 – C$23.62 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 3 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | — | 0.0700 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-31 | 0.1800 | 0.1600 | +12.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 0.0600 | -0.0100 | +700.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-27 | -0.2100 | 0.1000 | -310.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | -0.0200 | 0.0800 | -125.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-01 | 0.1800 | 0.1100 | +63.6% |
Investor takeaway: This report is about more than whether TransAlta beats a modest estimate. The company has beaten earnings estimates in two of its last four quarters. Results ranged from a C$0.21-per-share loss against a C$0.10 estimate in December 2025 to earnings of C$0.18 per share against a C$0.16 estimate in June 2026. The latest consensus has slipped from C$0.06 to C$0.05 over the past 30 days, based on three analysts. There’s no revenue consensus, so EPS is the clearest benchmark ahead of the report.
C$0.05 EPS consensus
Three analysts expect earnings of C$0.05 per share for the September quarter, with estimates ranging from C$0.02 to C$0.10. That’s down from C$0.06 a month ago and compares with a loss of C$0.02 per share a year earlier. There’s no revenue consensus, so the estimated 366.7% year-over-year EPS growth doesn’t tell the whole story about the company’s performance.
Bull case
Recent portfolio changes could help TransAlta fund its plans. The company sold a 49% stake in its 500 MW Oklahoma wind portfolio for US$305 million, while keeping operational oversight and an ongoing interest in the assets. It also completed a US$1 billion acquisition, including assumed project debt, of two contracted gas peaking facilities in Colorado with a combined capacity of 318 MW.
Management said it would use the sale proceeds to support the balance sheet and pursue growth projects, including the Centralia conversion and Alberta data centre projects. The earnings report should give investors a better sense of how these deals are affecting the company’s finances. TransAlta also declared a quarterly dividend of C$0.07 per common share, payable January 1, 2027, to shareholders of record on December 1.
Bear case
TransAlta’s recent earnings have been uneven. It missed estimates in two of its last four quarters, including a C$0.21-per-share loss in December 2025 and a C$0.02-per-share loss in September 2025. Negative trailing 12-month EPS and a negative profit margin show why one profitable quarter wouldn’t prove the company is back on solid footing.
The recent deals also bring financing and execution risks. The Colorado acquisition includes US$750 million in senior secured project-level debt, while the Oklahoma sale leaves TransAlta with a smaller stake in those wind assets. The company’s results and outlook will matter more than whether it beats the headline EPS estimate.
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