Waste Connections has beaten EPS estimates in each of its past four reported quarters. For the September quarter, investors will be watching whether pricing, acquisitions and operating efficiencies can support another beat.
Waste Connections Inc. (TSX: WCN) is scheduled to report after markets close on October 21, 2026, for the quarter ended September 30. Analysts expect EPS of US$1.50, within a range of US$1.48 to US$1.52, and revenue of about US$2.60 billion. Those estimates imply year-over-year growth of 4.0% in EPS and 5.6% in revenue.
Recent earnings trend
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Waste Connections Inc
WCN.TO
WCN.TO
Waste Connections Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$56.15B
P/E
38.2x
Div. yield
0.62%
Div. / share
$1.36
52W high
$249.31
52W low
$203.03
1W change
+6.85%
Beta
0.48
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering WCN · as of Oct 16, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast WCN stock price to rise 16.2% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$273.15
+16.2% Upside
Previously C$274.27 on Oct 15, 2026
Current Price
C$235.10
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on WCN's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
22.0%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
22.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+0.6%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$237.63
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$237.28 | C$219.91 – C$256.02 |
| 60 trading days | C$237.45 | C$213.25 – C$264.41 |
| 90 trading days | C$237.63 | C$208.32 – C$271.07 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 7 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-21 | — | 1.5200 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-22 | 1.5000 | 1.3600 | +10.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-22 | 1.2300 | 1.1800 | +4.2% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-11 | 1.2900 | 1.2700 | +1.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-21 | 1.4400 | 1.3800 | +4.3% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-23 | 1.2900 | 1.2500 | +3.2% |
WCN has beaten EPS estimates in each of its last four comparable quarters, including US$1.50 versus US$1.36 in June. But that record doesn’t guarantee another beat. The consensus EPS estimate has slipped from US$1.51 over the past 30 days, following two upward revisions and one downward revision. For Canadian investors, the key question is whether pricing and operating gains can offset any weakness in volumes and keep growth on track.
Investor takeaway: The outlook has both positives and risks. WCN has a four-quarter EPS beat streak, and analysts still expect year-over-year growth. But the latest consensus has edged lower, and the stock trades at about 38 times trailing earnings. Watch EPS against the US$1.50 consensus, revenue against roughly US$2.60 billion, and management’s comments on pricing, volumes, acquisitions and cost efficiencies. A beat may not be enough if the outlook or operating details disappoint.
US$1.50
That’s the consensus EPS estimate for the September 2026 quarter, based on seven analysts. Their estimates range from US$1.48 to US$1.52. WCN beat estimates in each of its last four comparable quarters, but the September results and management’s comments will show whether that streak continues.
Bull case
WCN has several potential sources of support heading into the report. In the June quarter, core price and yield rose 5.6%, while fuel and material surcharges added 1.1%, according to company coverage. Acquisitions have also helped the company expand. Its AI-backed pricing tool has reportedly generated about US$20 million in annualized EBITDA benefits. Improved employee retention and lower risk-management costs have supported margins as well. If these factors continue, they could help WCN grow even if volumes soften. Analysts’ average price target is C$273.15, 16.2% above the supplied last close of C$235.10. Price targets are estimates, not promises.
Bear case
Expectations are significant for a company trading at a premium. WCN’s supplied trailing P/E is about 38, and the consensus EPS estimate has fallen from US$1.51 to US$1.50 over the past month. The company’s history of beating estimates is encouraging, but weaker volumes, higher costs or cautious operating commentary could weigh on expectations. Wealth Awesome’s supplied statistical model puts the 90-day mean at C$228.12, below the C$235.10 reference price. Its 68% range is wide, from C$200.07 to C$260.12. The model is not financial advice or a price target.
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Analysis
WCN is due to report after markets close on October 21 for the quarter ended September 30. Analysts expect EPS of US$1.50, within a range of US$1.48 to US$1.52, and revenue of about US$2.60 billion. Those estimates imply year-over-year growth of 4.0% in EPS and 5.6% in revenue.
WCN beat EPS estimates in each of its last four comparable quarters: US$1.50 versus US$1.36 in June, US$1.23 versus US$1.18 in March, US$1.29 versus US$1.27 in December 2025, and US$1.44 versus US$1.38 in September 2025. The earnings trend table and chart below show the results by quarter. The streak offers useful context, but it doesn’t predict the next result.
Analysis
Pricing and execution will be important to watch. Coverage of the June quarter reported 5.6% growth in core price and yield, with fuel and material surcharges adding 1.1%. Acquisitions have also supported growth. Company coverage said deals completed in the first half of 2026 represented nearly US$100 million in annualized revenue.
Operational initiatives may also support margins. WCN’s AI-backed pricing tool reportedly generates about US$20 million in annualized EBITDA benefits, while improved retention and lower risk-management costs have helped recent margin expansion. The earnings report and call should show whether these factors continued in the September quarter and what management expects for volumes, costs and acquisitions.
Analysis
WCN’s supplied trailing P/E is 38.2, and its dividend yield is 0.62%. That makes management’s outlook important alongside the headline EPS result. The supplied analyst data shows an average price target of C$273.15, or 16.2% above the C$235.10 reference close. See the analyst ratings and price targets. These estimates don’t guarantee future returns.
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model gives a mean forecast of C$228.12, with a 68% range of C$200.07 to C$260.12 and a 95% range of C$175.46 to C$296.60. It isn’t financial advice or a personalized recommendation. See the WCN price forecast for details. For company information and more coverage, visit the Waste Connections stock page.
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