Aecon reported third-quarter EPS of C$0.86, beating the C$0.74 estimate and extending its run of quarterly earnings surprises.
Aecon Group Inc. (TSX: ARE) reported results after the market close on October 29 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. EPS came in 16.2% above the calendar estimate, marking the company’s fourth consecutive comparable-quarter beat. That’s a positive sign, but investors should weigh it against Aecon’s negative trailing-twelve-month (TTM) EPS and profit margin, as well as the execution risks that come with large construction projects.
Recent earnings trend
Aecon Group Inc.
ARE.TO
ARE.TO
Aecon Group Inc.
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$3.66B
Div. yield
1.44%
Div. / share
$0.77
52W high
$59.96
52W low
$24.59
1W change
+11.54%
Beta
1.06
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ARE · as of Oct 19, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast ARE stock price to rise 10.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$59.30
+10.9% Upside
Previously C$59.00 on Oct 16, 2026
Current Price
C$53.46
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ARE's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
54.0%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
53.9%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+36.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$60.80
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$55.80 | C$46.31 – C$67.24 |
| 60 trading days | C$58.25 | C$44.75 – C$75.83 |
| 90 trading days | C$60.80 | C$44.02 – C$83.98 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 5 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-29 | 0.8600 | 0.7400 | +16.2% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-30 | 0.3300 | 0.2900 | +13.8% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-28 | -0.2100 | -0.2200 | +4.5% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-05 | 0.5200 | 0.3300 | +57.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | 0.5300 | 0.4500 | +17.8% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-31 | -0.0900 | 0.0400 | -325.0% |
Investor takeaway: Aecon has beaten estimates for four straight comparable quarters, and its share price is above its 50- and 200-day moving averages. But the supplied results don’t include quarterly revenue or margins, so EPS alone doesn’t show how project performance translated into profit. TTM EPS of -C$0.98 and a profit margin of -1.10% are reminders that one strong quarter doesn’t yet establish consistent profitability.
C$0.86 EPS, 16.2% above estimate
Aecon reported EPS of C$0.86, C$0.12 above the C$0.74 estimate. It was the fourth consecutive comparable-quarter beat, following surprises of 13.79%, 4.55% and 57.58%.
Bull case
Aecon has beaten estimates in each of the last four comparable quarters. Before this quarter’s 16.22% beat, surprises ranged from 4.55% to 57.58%. The company also has a sizeable infrastructure backlog. Its shares closed at C$53.46, above the 50-day average of C$48.94 and the 200-day average of C$45.17. If Aecon executes its projects well and sustains earnings, these factors could support investor confidence.
Bear case
Construction earnings can fluctuate, and Aecon’s trailing figures remain weak: TTM EPS is -C$0.98 and its profit margin is -1.10%. The supplied results don’t include quarterly revenue or margins, so it’s hard to judge the quality or durability of the EPS beat. The recent share-price rise also leaves investors exposed if project execution or profitability falls short.
Earnings analysis
Aecon reported EPS of C$0.86 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, compared with the C$0.74 calendar estimate. That’s a positive surprise of 16.22%, or C$0.12 per share. The company also beat estimates in the previous three comparable quarters: C$0.33 versus C$0.29 for the quarter ended June 30, C$-0.21 versus C$-0.22 for March 31, and C$0.52 versus C$0.33 for December 31, 2025. The earnings trend table and chart show the quarter-by-quarter results.
The supplied release information doesn’t include quarterly revenue or margins, so EPS alone doesn’t provide a complete picture of operating performance. Aecon is an infrastructure contractor with a sizeable backlog, but project execution will determine how much of that work turns into earnings. Its fundamentals snapshot shows TTM EPS of -C$0.98 and a profit margin of -1.10%. Those figures highlight the difference between a run of estimate beats and sustained profitability.
Share price and analyst targets
Aecon closed at C$53.46 on October 29. The supplied market data show gains of 11.54% over one week and 2.20% over one month. The company also appeared among the day’s top movers in the market update. Its closing price was above the 50-day average of C$48.94 and the 200-day average of C$45.17, but below its 52-week high of C$59.96.
The average analyst price target is C$59.30, or 10.9% above the last close. The supplied rating label is Moderately Bullish, based on the average target compared with the closing price. A formal rating isn’t available for this Canadian listing. Price targets are estimates, not guarantees. See Aecon’s analyst ratings and the ARE.TO stock page for more context.
Statistical price forecast
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day model puts Aecon’s mean forecast at C$60.80, compared with its October 29 close of C$53.46. The model’s 68% range is C$44.02 to C$83.98, and its wider 95% range is C$31.87 to C$116.00. Mean estimates rise from C$55.80 at 30 days to C$58.25 at 60 days and C$60.80 at 90 days.
The model uses annualized drift of 36.0% and 30-day volatility of 54.0%. These figures describe the model’s assumptions and uncertainty, not a promised return. This is a statistical model, not financial advice. Review the Wealth Awesome price forecast alongside Aecon’s earnings record and fundamentals, rather than using it as a standalone investment case.
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