Source Energy Services reported a smaller loss than in the previous two quarters. Still, its September-quarter earnings per share (EPS) missed estimates for the fourth comparable quarter in a row.
Source Energy Services Ltd. (TSX: SHLE) reported a loss of C$0.13 per share for the fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2026. Analysts had expected a loss of C$0.08, making the shortfall 62.5%. Supplemental reports say revenue rose 50% year over year to C$188.0 million and adjusted EBITDA reached C$26.9 million. Those figures weren’t included in the supplied earnings calendar data. SHLE closed at C$10.75 on November 6. See the SHLE stock page for company and share details.
Recent earnings trend
Source Energy Services Ltd
SHLE.TO
SHLE.TO
Source Energy Services Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$139.82M
52W high
$18.74
52W low
$8.60
1W change
+5.39%
Beta
1.78
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering SHLE · as of Sep 17, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast SHLE stock price to rise 41.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$15.25
+41.9% Upside
Current Price
C$10.75
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on SHLE's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
54.1%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
42.2%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-46.6%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$9.10
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$10.17 | C$8.44 – C$12.26 |
| 60 trading days | C$9.62 | C$7.39 – C$12.53 |
| 90 trading days | C$9.10 | C$6.59 – C$12.58 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-25 | — | 0.7400 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | -0.1300 | -0.0800 | -62.5% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | -0.3700 | 0.1700 | -317.6% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | -0.2521 | 0.5600 | -145.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 0.1300 | 0.3200 | -59.4% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | -0.1900 | 0.0900 | -311.1% |
Investor takeaway: SHLE has missed estimates in each of its last four comparable quarters, reporting losses in the first three quarters of 2026. Revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA point to stronger operating activity, but they don’t erase the earnings miss. Consider both measures, and review the company’s filings before drawing conclusions about profitability or cash flow.
C$0.13 loss per share
SHLE’s loss was C$0.05 per share greater than the estimated C$0.08 loss, a 62.5% negative surprise. The loss was smaller than the C$0.37 reported in the June quarter, but the company still missed estimates for a fourth comparable quarter in a row.
Bull case
Supplemental coverage of the Q3 results reports that revenue rose 50% year over year, adjusted EBITDA was C$26.9 million, and sand volumes increased 55%. Source also announced a contract for a new Sahara unit in Alaska, with the customer covering construction costs. If these operating gains lead to stronger, sustained earnings, they could support a recovery. The average analyst target is C$15.25, or 41.9% above the last close. Formal ratings aren’t available for this Canadian listing.
Bear case
SHLE has missed EPS estimates for four comparable quarters in a row. Its supplied trailing EPS is -C$0.80, and its profit margin is -1.63%. The latest loss of C$0.13 per share was larger than the estimated C$0.08 loss. The next-quarter EPS consensus is C$0.57, but it’s based on just one analyst. There’s no revenue consensus available. The gap between that estimate and recent results leaves significant uncertainty about execution.
Analysis
For the fiscal quarter ended September 30, Source Energy Services reported EPS of -C$0.13, compared with an estimate of -C$0.08. That’s a 62.5% negative surprise and the company’s fourth consecutive comparable-quarter miss. The previous three supplied results were -C$0.37 versus C$0.17 in June, -C$0.2521 versus C$0.56 in March, and C$0.13 versus C$0.32 in December 2025. The loss narrowed from the June quarter, but the gap against estimates remains notable. The recent earnings trend table and chart show the quarter-by-quarter results.
Analysis
Supplemental coverage of the November 5 results reports Q3 revenue of C$188.0 million, up 50% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of C$26.9 million. It also reports that sand volumes rose 55% and that Source secured a contract for a new Sahara unit in Alaska, with the customer covering construction costs. These figures add context to the EPS miss, but come from supplemental reports rather than the supplied earnings calendar data. For full financial statements and management’s discussion, consult the company’s filings and MD&A.
Analysis
The average analyst target is C$15.25, compared with SHLE’s November 6 closing price of C$10.75. That implies 41.9% upside to the average target. The supplied consensus descriptor is bullish based on this comparison, but formal ratings aren’t available for this Canadian listing. Analyst targets are estimates, not guarantees. See the analyst ratings section alongside the company’s results.
Analysis
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day model gives a mean forecast of C$9.10, below the C$10.75 reference price. Its 68% range is C$6.59 to C$12.58, and its wider 95% range is C$4.77 to C$17.38. The model reports annualized drift of -46.6% and 30-day volatility of 54.1%, pointing to substantial uncertainty. This is a statistical model, not financial advice or a price target. See the SHLE price prediction section for details.
Best next step
Keep exploring this topic
If you want to go deeper, these are the most useful follow-up pages and tools for this topic.
Broker comparison
Best trading platforms in Canada
Compare $0-commission brokers before you act on a ticker story.
Safe cash
Best GIC rates in Canada
If the story makes you want to de-risk, compare guaranteed rates next.
HISA roundup
Best high-interest savings accounts
Keep dry powder in a no-fee savings account instead of chequing.
TFSA room
Check TFSA contribution room
Shelter the next contribution before you buy.
Wealth Awesome
Timely coverage of Canadian stocks, earnings, dividends, and market movers for DIY investors. Stories are checked against exchange data and public filings.
View Full Profile →✅ Reviewed by Certified Financial Professionals
This content has been reviewed by CFA® charterholders and Certified Financial Planners (CFP®) with over a decade of experience in Canadian financial markets. All information is fact-checked against official Canadian sources and regulations.
Why these credentials matter: CFA® charterholders complete 900+ hours of rigorous study in investment analysis and ethics. CFP® professionals are held to the highest standards of financial planning competency and fiduciary duty in Canada.
⚠️ Professional Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized financial advice. While our team brings professional expertise, individual circumstances vary. For personalized guidance, consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or mortgage specialist.
