Canadian National Railway’s calendar EPS beat expectations, while its operating results showed stronger freight revenue alongside rising costs.
Canadian National Railway Co. (TSX: CNR) reported third-quarter 2026 results before markets opened on October 30. Calendar EPS was C$2.16, 3.85% above the C$2.08 estimate. The company also reported revenue of C$3.42 billion, up 15% from a year earlier, and net income growth of 6%. Adjusted diluted EPS was about C$1.55, above the roughly C$1.50 FactSet estimate. These are different EPS measures and shouldn’t be compared as if they were the same. CNR shares closed at C$172.81 on the day of the report. Visit the CNR stock page for company details and ongoing coverage.
Recent earnings trend
Canadian National Railway Co
CNR.TO
CNR.TO
Canadian National Railway Co
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$103.63B
P/E
21.7x
Div. yield
2.09%
Div. / share
$3.63
52W high
$184.26
52W low
$125.06
1W change
+0.18%
Beta
0.99
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering CNR · as of Nov 2, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast CNR stock price to rise 9.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$189.95
+9.9% Upside
Previously C$189.47 on Oct 20, 2026
Current Price
C$172.81
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on CNR's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
18.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
18.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-11.8%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$165.66
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$170.39 | C$159.81 – C$181.68 |
| 60 trading days | C$168.01 | C$153.44 – C$183.97 |
| 90 trading days | C$165.66 | C$148.24 – C$185.13 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 22 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-01-28 | — | 2.1900 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-30 | 2.1600 | 2.0800 | +3.8% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-24 | 2.0800 | 1.9600 | +6.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | 1.8000 | 1.8100 | -0.6% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-01-30 | 2.0800 | 1.9800 | +5.1% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-31 | 1.8300 | 1.7700 | +3.4% |
Investor takeaway: Freight revenue grew, but the margin picture was mixed. Grain, fertilizer, petroleum and chemicals, and automotive activity supported results. Higher fuel costs and an approximately C$84 million technology impairment weighed on reported operating performance. CN kept its 2026 outlook, with adjusted earnings growth on track for the upper end of its forecast range. Investors will be watching whether volume growth and productivity gains can keep offsetting costs and uneven demand across freight categories.
C$2.16 calendar EPS, 3.85% above estimate
Calendar EPS was C$2.16, compared with the C$2.08 estimate. Separately, CN reported adjusted diluted EPS of about C$1.55, above FactSet’s roughly C$1.50 expectation. Keep these measures separate when assessing the quarter. Net income rose 6%, revenue increased 15%, and the adjusted operating ratio improved to 61.0% after specified costs were excluded.
Bull case
Revenue ton-miles rose 4%, and freight revenue increased 15%. Grain and fertilizer traffic grew 12% by revenue ton-miles, while automotive traffic climbed 20%. CN said its adjusted operating ratio improved to 61.0% after excluding the impairment and advisory costs. Year-to-date free cash flow rose 25% to about C$2.09 billion. The company also reported record third-quarter fuel efficiency and kept its capital investment plan at about C$2.00 billion, net of customer reimbursements. CN beat EPS estimates in three of the last four comparable quarters.
Bear case
Reported operating expenses rose 19%, outpacing revenue growth. The reported operating ratio worsened to 63.7%, from 61.4% a year earlier. Fuel expense increased to C$474 million from C$299 million, despite better fuel efficiency. Coal, forest products, and intermodal traffic declined. Management also cited economic uncertainty, geopolitical conflict, and trade tensions as risks to demand. The share price is below the average analyst target, which suggests potential upside but doesn’t guarantee it. Valuation remains a consideration.
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