TMX Group’s adjusted third-quarter EPS beat the calendar estimate, and revenue rose 17% from a year earlier. But the results also reflected higher costs, recent acquisitions and a decline in reported diluted EPS.
TMX Group Limited (TSX: X) reported its third-quarter 2026 results after the market closed on October 29. Adjusted diluted EPS was C$0.63, 10.5% above the calendar estimate of C$0.57 and 21% higher than a year earlier. Revenue reached C$491.1 million, up 17% from Q3 2025. For Canadian investors, the key distinction is that reported diluted EPS fell year over year, partly because foreign-exchange results turned against the company. Adjusted earnings and organic revenue grew. Here’s what to know about the quarter and what to watch next for TMX Group.
Recent earnings trend
TMX Group Limited
X.TO
X.TO
TMX Group Limited
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$16.52B
P/E
27.2x
Div. yield
1.61%
Div. / share
$0.92
52W high
$62.57
52W low
$43.47
1W change
+4.60%
Beta
0.06
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering X · as of Oct 30, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast X stock price to rise 10.8% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$66.57
+10.8% Upside
Previously C$66.14 on Oct 28, 2026
Current Price
C$60.07
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on X's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
23.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
22.0%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$71.81
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$63.75 | C$58.71 – C$69.24 |
| 60 trading days | C$67.66 | C$60.21 – C$76.04 |
| 90 trading days | C$71.81 | C$62.25 – C$82.84 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 7 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-04 | — | 0.6400 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-29 | 0.6300 | 0.5700 | +10.5% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-30 | 0.6300 | 0.5900 | +6.8% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-04 | 0.8000 | 0.5900 | +35.6% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-04 | 0.6000 | 0.5500 | +9.1% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-27 | 0.5200 | 0.4900 | +6.1% |
Investor takeaway: TMX delivered broad operating growth, but it’s worth separating underlying performance from acquisition effects and foreign-exchange swings. Adjusted diluted EPS rose 21% year over year, while reported diluted EPS fell 12% to C$0.38. Revenue excluding the specified recent acquisitions grew 11%, and operating expenses rose 13% on the company’s adjusted comparison basis. TMX also declared an eligible dividend of C$0.26 per share, payable November 27 to shareholders of record on November 13, 2026. The shares closed at C$60.07 on October 30, above their 50- and 200-day moving averages and close to the 52-week high of C$62.57. That momentum doesn’t settle the valuation question: the supplied P/E is about 27.2, making continued earnings growth important.
C$0.63 adjusted diluted EPS
Adjusted diluted EPS came in 10.5% above the C$0.57 calendar estimate and rose 21% from C$0.52 in Q3 2025. The calendar estimate differs from the company’s reported adjusted EPS consensus trend figure of C$0.59. The result was above that figure, too. Revenue was C$491.1 million, compared with the supplied calendar consensus of C$473.55 million. Reported diluted EPS was C$0.38, down from C$0.43 a year earlier, partly because of the unfavourable foreign-exchange comparison.
Bull case
TMX’s exchange, clearing and data businesses grew across several areas. Management reported double-digit organic revenue growth in Global Insights, Derivatives Trading and Clearing, and Capital Formation. Revenue rose 17% overall, while adjusted diluted EPS increased 21% from a year earlier. The acquisitions of TMX Australia Exchange and RAFI Indices expand the business. TMX expects RAFI to add to adjusted EPS within 12 months. The C$0.26 dividend also provides income, though the supplied yield is 1.61%.
Bear case
Higher costs and the work of integrating acquisitions temper the growth story. Operating expenses rose 35% year over year, or 13% excluding specified acquisitions and other items. Management also pointed to higher headcount, incentive costs and IT spending. TMX partly funded acquisitions and debt refinancing with C$1.1 billion in new debentures, and reported total debt of C$2.76 billion. Reported diluted EPS fell 12%, including a C$0.10-per-share year-over-year impact from foreign-exchange losses compared with gains a year earlier. With the shares trading at a premium P/E, weaker trading activity, slower data growth or slower-than-expected debt reduction could put pressure on investor expectations.
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