MCAN Mortgage Corporation reported third-quarter EPS of C$0.47, below the C$0.50 estimate. The miss follows two stronger quarters. For next quarter, analysts expect EPS to be higher than a year ago.
MCAN Mortgage Corporation (TSX: MKP) reported results after market close on October 29 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. EPS came in at C$0.47, 6.0% below the C$0.50 estimate. That ended two consecutive quarterly beats. Over the past four quarters, MKP.TO has recorded two beats and two misses. For Canadian investors, the question is whether this was a one-quarter setback or a sign of weaker earnings momentum.
Recent earnings trend
MCAN Mortgage Corporation
MKP.TO
MKP.TO
MCAN Mortgage Corporation
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$902.57M
P/E
10.5x
Div. yield
7.69%
Div. / share
$1.68
52W high
$26.13
52W low
$19.52
1W change
+1.38%
Beta
0.67
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering MKP · as of Oct 30, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast MKP stock price to rise 8.8% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$24.00
+8.8% Upside
Previously C$24.67 on Oct 28, 2026
Current Price
C$22.06
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on MKP's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
18.7%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
22.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-17.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$20.76
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$21.62 | C$20.27 – C$23.06 |
| 60 trading days | C$21.19 | C$19.34 – C$23.21 |
| 90 trading days | C$20.76 | C$18.57 – C$23.21 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 3 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-23 | — | 0.5100 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-29 | 0.4700 | 0.5000 | -6.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-30 | 0.5900 | 0.5100 | +15.7% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.5700 | 0.4700 | +21.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-23 | 0.4300 | 0.4800 | -10.4% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-05 | 0.5200 | 0.4600 | +13.0% |
Investor takeaway: The miss is worth watching, but one quarter does not establish a trend. MCAN beat estimates in March and June, then missed in December and September. Analysts expect next-quarter EPS of C$0.54, based on estimates from three analysts, representing 4.5% growth from a year ago. That estimate is a reference point, not a guarantee. Investors should also consider the reported 7.69% dividend yield alongside the risks of mortgage lending and uncertain future results.
C$0.47 EPS versus C$0.50 expected
The 6.0% miss followed EPS of C$0.59 against C$0.51 expected in June and C$0.57 against C$0.47 expected in March. In December, MCAN reported C$0.43, below the C$0.48 estimate. The four-quarter record is mixed, with two beats and two misses.
Bull case
MCAN has posted two strong earnings beats in recent quarters, and analysts expect next-quarter EPS to exceed the year-ago result. The stock’s last close of C$22.06 is below the average analyst target of C$24.00. Its reported 7.69% dividend yield may interest income-focused investors, but the yield alone does not show whether the dividend is sustainable.
Bear case
MCAN missed estimates in the latest quarter, and its results have alternated between beats and misses over the past four quarters. Only three analysts contributed to the next-quarter EPS consensus, and no revenue consensus is available. MCAN’s statistical 90-day forecast has a mean below the current share price, adding to the uncertainty around near-term performance. Mortgage finance results are also exposed to credit conditions and changes in the housing and interest-rate environment.
Earnings results
MCAN reported EPS of C$0.47 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, compared with the calendar estimate of C$0.50. That was a 6.0% miss. In June, EPS was C$0.59 against C$0.51 expected. In March, it was C$0.57 against C$0.47 expected. In December 2025, EPS was C$0.43 versus C$0.48 expected. Across the four quarters, MCAN beat estimates twice and missed twice. The earnings trend table and chart below show the results quarter by quarter, but they do not explain this quarter’s shortfall. The available data does not include third-quarter revenue or margins, so those results cannot be assessed here. See the MCAN stock page for more company data.
Next-quarter estimates and analyst outlook
The next-quarter EPS consensus is C$0.54, based on three analysts, with estimates ranging from C$0.50 to C$0.57. That compares with year-ago EPS of C$0.52, for estimated growth of 4.5%. The consensus has not changed in the past 30 days, though there was one downward revision and no upward revisions. Revenue estimates are unavailable. Analyst coverage is limited, so treat the forecast as a small sample rather than a broad market view.
The average analyst price target is C$24.00, or 8.8% above the last close of C$22.06. The available rating descriptor is “Moderately Bullish,” based on the average target compared with the last close. A formal rating is not available for this Canadian listing. See the analyst ratings section for details.
Share price and company data
MKP.TO closed at C$22.06 on October 30. The share price was above its 50-day moving average of C$21.40 and below its 200-day average of C$23.43. Its 52-week range was C$19.52 to C$26.13. MCAN’s reported figures include a P/E ratio of 10.455, trailing EPS of C$2.11 and a dividend yield of 7.69%. These figures provide context, not a recommendation.
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model has a mean forecast of C$20.76, below the current price. Its 68% range is C$18.57 to C$23.21, and its 95% range is C$16.61 to C$25.96. This is a statistical model, not financial advice or a price target. See the price prediction section for details.
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